Myeni et al. (2026) Long-term changes in the climate extremes and their impacts on maize yields in the summer rainfall region of South Africa

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-11
• Authors: Lindumusa Myeni, Nisa Ayob
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-026-06550-y

Research Groups

• University of Pretoria, Department of Agricultural Economics
• University of the Free State, Department of Plant Production and Soil Science
• Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Climate Studies Division

Short Summary

This study analyzed spatio-temporal trends of extreme climate indices during the maize-growing season in South Africa, finding significant warming and increased heat extremes that negatively impact maize yield.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between climate variability and maize yield fluctuations across key maize-producing districts in South Africa.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: National scale, focusing on major maize-growing regions in South Africa.
• Temporal Scale: Long-term trends (daily climate data from 1980 to 2019) and interannual variability (maize yield records).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: None mentioned; analysis based on statistical methods (Sen’s slope, Mann–Kendall test, Pearson correlation coefficient).
• Data sources: Daily climate data from representative stations across contrasting agroecological zones, district-level maize yield records.

Main Results

• Significant warming (0.02–0.06 °C per annum) and increased frequency of very hot days (TX90p) in the summer rainfall region.
• Declining rainfall frequency and reduced moisture availability in semi-arid districts.
• Negative correlations between TX90p and maize yield, and positive correlations between SPEI and maize yield.

Contributions

This study provides original insights into the impact of climate variability on maize production in South Africa, highlighting the need for locally tailored adaptation strategies to enhance resilience.

Funding

• National Research Foundation (NRF) of South Africa (Grant numbers: 106047 and 119394)
• Department of Science and Technology (DST) of South Africa (Project code: 15/KDD/2015)

Citation

@article{Myeni2026Longterm,
  author = {Myeni, Lindumusa and Ayob, Nisa},
  title = {Long-term changes in the climate extremes and their impacts on maize yields in the summer rainfall region of South Africa},
  journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s00704-026-06550-y},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06550-y}
}