Neway et al. (2026) Increasing potential evapotranspiration despite non-significant rainfall trends: a 35-year hydroclimatic analysis and assessment of farmer perceptions in Southern Ethiopia

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Identification

• Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-24
• Authors: Hiwot Neway, Muluken Mekuyie, Yoseph Melka, Haftu Abrha, Abera Tilahun Abdi
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-026-06553-9

Research Groups

This study examined 35-year hydroclimatic variability and farmer perceptions in Ethiopia, revealing that despite stable annual precipitation totals, significant increases in temperature and potential evapotranspiration led to widespread farmer-reported shifts in rainfall patterns and increased drought frequency.

Objective

• To examine 35-year hydroclimatic variability and farmer-reported climate conditions in the Boricha and Bilate Zuria districts of Sidama Regional State, Ethiopia.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Boricha and Bilate Zuria districts of Sidama Regional State, Ethiopia
• Temporal Scale: 35 years (1990–2024)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Non-parametric trend analysis (Mann–Kendall, Sen’s slope), Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)
• Data sources: Instrumental observations from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, ERA5 reanalysis data (1990–2024), household survey (n = 204, conducted September–December 2024)

Main Results

• Annual precipitation showed no statistically significant long-term trend, with minor, non-significant positive tendencies (+1.14 to +1.80 mm yr⁻¹).
• Mean annual temperature increased significantly (+0.0167 to +0.0171 °C yr⁻¹).
• Potential evapotranspiration (PET) exhibited a significant upward trend.
• Multi-scalar SPEI series revealed pronounced interannual variability (extreme drought to severe wet conditions) but no statistically significant long-term drying trends.
• 89.7% of surveyed households reported perceiving shifts in rainfall patterns, 76.5% perceived an increase in drought frequency, and 72.5% observed a shortened rainy season.
• Leading household-reported climate-related impacts included flooding (68.1%), land degradation (48.5%), and resource-based conflict (43.5%).
• Cumulative shock exposure was significantly determined by district and household wealth status (p = 0.001–0.003).

Contributions

• Demonstrates that reliance solely on annual rainfall totals can obscure important dimensions of climate exposure linked to rising evaporative demand.
• Underscores the importance of integrating temperature-driven water-balance metrics, intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics, and crop-specific climate sensitivities into climate-risk management in smallholder systems.

Funding

Citation

@article{Neway2026Increasing,
  author = {Neway, Hiwot and Mekuyie, Muluken and Melka, Yoseph and Abrha, Haftu and Abdi, Abera Tilahun},
  title = {Increasing potential evapotranspiration despite non-significant rainfall trends: a 35-year hydroclimatic analysis and assessment of farmer perceptions in Southern Ethiopia},
  journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s00704-026-06553-9},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06553-9}
}