Mohomi et al. (2026) Projections of hydrological changes and riverflow extremes using TerM land surface model in the Limpopo River Basin, South Africa

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-15
• Authors: Tumelo Mohomi, V M Stepanenko, А. I. Medvedev, Inos Dhau, Mary-Jane Bopape, Hector Chikoore
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-026-06579-z

Research Groups

• University of Pretoria Climate Change Institute
• Department of Water Affairs, South African Government
• Limpopo River Basin Authority

Short Summary

This study projects the impact of climate change on hydrological extremes in the Limpopo River Basin, South Africa, using the INM RAS-MSU Land Surface Model. The results indicate a significant increase in peak flow events during the austral summer under high-emission scenarios.

Objective

• Investigate the effects of climate change on hydroclimatic extremes in the Limpopo River Basin

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Limpopo River Basin, South Africa)
• Temporal Scale: 2020–2100, with a focus on near-future (2020–2055) and far-future (2065–2100) projections

Methodology and Data

• Models used: INM RAS-MSU Land Surface Model (Terrestrial Model; TerM)
• Data sources: CMIP6 ISIMIP database for atmospheric forcing, historical climate data from 1979 to 2014

Main Results

• Peak flow events are projected to increase by more than 50% in the near future under high-emission scenarios.
• The basin exhibits a statistically insignificant decreasing trend in annual streamflow between 2020 and 2100.
• A shift towards a more volatile regime is observed, with intensified high-flow extremes during January and February and increasing dry conditions in March and September.

Contributions

This study provides an evidence base for strengthening climate adaptation policies to reduce the impacts of hydroclimatic extremes in northeastern South Africa. The findings highlight the importance of considering climate change projections when developing water management strategies.

Funding

• This research was funded by the National Research Foundation (NRF) of South Africa, grant number 105956.
• Additional support was provided by the Department of Water Affairs and Sanitation's Climate Change Adaptation Trust.

Citation

@article{Mohomi2026Projections,
  author = {Mohomi, Tumelo and Stepanenko, V M and Medvedev, А. I. and Dhau, Inos and Bopape, Mary-Jane and Chikoore, Hector},
  title = {Projections of hydrological changes and riverflow extremes using TerM land surface model in the Limpopo River Basin, South Africa},
  journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s00704-026-06579-z},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06579-z}
}