Barmakova et al. (2026) Long-term dynamics of groundwater levels under rice-based irrigation systems in South-East Kazakhstan

Identification

• Journal: Paddy and Water Environment
• Year: 2026
• Authors: D. Barmakova, Javier Rodrigo-Ilarri, Ilan Shakibayev, María-Elena Rodrigo-Clavero, Zhaiyk Yerikuly, Vyacheslav A. Zavaley
• DOI: 10.1007/s10333-026-01056-9

Research Groups

• Department of Hydrogeology, Engineering and Oil and Gas Geology, Satbayev University, Kazakhstan.
• Instituto de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio Ambiente (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), Spain.
• Zonal Hydrogeological and Reclamation Center, Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, Kazakhstan.
• Groundwater Department, Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, Kazakhstan.

Short Summary

This study analyzes over 60 years of hydrogeological monitoring data to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of groundwater regimes in the Akdala and Karatal rice irrigation massifs. The research identifies a recent trend of declining groundwater levels (0.25–0.45 m per year) driven by water scarcity and reduced rice cultivation, providing a framework for adaptive irrigation management in arid regions.

Objective

• To identify key groundwater regime patterns and evolutionary stages in the rice-based irrigation systems of South-East Kazakhstan.
• To evaluate the impact of anthropogenic factors (irrigation practices, infrastructure degradation) and natural factors (climate change) on the water-salt balance and agricultural productivity.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale focusing on the Akdala and Karatal irrigation massifs (Almaty and Zhetysu regions), covering the deltaic plains of the Ile and Karatal rivers.
• Temporal Scale: Long-term analysis based on 60+ years of monitoring data, with specific spatial-temporal comparisons between 1989 and 2023.

Methodology and Data

• Models and Frameworks: Groundwater regime classification based on the Katz and Shestakov genetic typology (hydrological, climatic, irrigation, and transitional types).
• Data sources: Long-term hydrogeological monitoring data from observation wells (average depth of 10 m) managed by the Zonal Hydrogeological and Land Reclamation Center of Kazakhstan.
• Analysis Techniques: Statistical analysis of groundwater level (GWL) fluctuations, spatial cartographic processing for flow direction and depth mapping, and identification of seasonal/long-term evolutionary phases.

Main Results

• Evolutionary Stages: Identified six distinct stages of groundwater evolution, transitioning from rapid rise (1.2–1.8 m/year) during initial development to a recent progressive decline.
• Seasonal Dynamics: Defined six seasonal phases; GWL peaks 7–21 days after rice field flooding, with rise rates of 0.05–0.18 m/day in sandy soils (Akdala) and 0.01–0.06 m/day in loamy soils (Karatal).
• Quantitative Trends: In the last 7–9 years, average annual GWL has decreased by 0.25–0.45 m in rice systems due to crop diversification and water shortages.
• Spatial Distribution: As of 2023, GWL depths range from 1.28–6.15 m in Akdala and 0.96–4.32 m in Karatal. There is a notable reduction in "critical" shallow zones (< 1.5 m), which has alleviated waterlogging in some areas but increased the risk of moisture deficits in others.

Contributions

• Typological Framework: Establishes a systematic classification of groundwater regimes applicable to large-scale irrigation systems in deltaic river basins.
• Long-term Synthesis: Links socio-economic transitions (e.g., post-Soviet land reforms) and climate-induced water scarcity to specific hydrogeological evolutionary stages.
• Management Insights: Provides a robust scientific basis for implementing adaptive strategies such as Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD), System of Rice Intensification (SRI), and drainage rehabilitation to sustain rice farming in the Ile-Balkhash basin.

Funding

• Erasmus+ CBHE project "Land management, Environment and SoLId-WastE: inside education and business in Central Asia" (LESLIE), project number: ERASMUS-EDU-2023-CBHE no. 101129032.
• CRUE-CSIC agreement with Springer Nature.
• Universitat Politècnica de València (article publishing charges).

Citation

@article{Barmakova2026Longterm,
  author = {Barmakova, D. and Rodrigo-Ilarri, Javier and Shakibayev, Ilan and Rodrigo-Clavero, María-Elena and Yerikuly, Zhaiyk and Zavaley, Vyacheslav A.},
  title = {Long-term dynamics of groundwater levels under rice-based irrigation systems in South-East Kazakhstan},
  journal = {Paddy and Water Environment},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s10333-026-01056-9},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-026-01056-9}
}

Generated by BiblioAssistant using gemini-3-flash-preview (Google API)