Scagliarini (2026) Non-parametric time between events and amplitude methods for monitoring regional drought characteristics

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Identification

• Journal: Environmental and Ecological Statistics
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-29
• Authors: Michele Scagliarini
• DOI: 10.1007/s10651-026-00760-3

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

The paper proposes a non-parametric Time Between Events and Amplitude (TBEA) framework to monitor regional drought characteristics, finding a significant increase in the frequency and severity of droughts in the Emilia-Romagna region since the early 2000s.

Objective

• To develop a non-parametric statistical framework for monitoring regional drought characteristics (frequency, magnitude, and duration) to detect both gradual and abrupt shifts in drought dynamics.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Emilia-Romagna region, Italy.
• Temporal Scale: Monthly data spanning over 100 years.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Area-weighted regional Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 12-month (hydrological) and 24-month (socio-economic) accumulation scales.
  • Exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) TBEA control chart.
  • Non-parametric change-point control chart based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) statistic.
• Data sources: Monthly SPEI historical data.

Main Results

• Identification of a long-term deterioration in regional drought characteristics in Emilia-Romagna starting in the early 2000s.
• Quantitative evidence of a trend toward increasingly frequent and severe drought events.
• Successful integration of drought timing and magnitude into a unified stochastic representation.

Contributions

• Introduction of a distribution-free (non-parametric) monitoring framework that avoids the assumptions of specific probability distributions.
• Provision of a dual-approach system capable of detecting both persistent gradual departures and abrupt distributional shifts in drought patterns.
• Development of a methodology well-suited for operational environmental event analysis and drought resilience planning.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Scagliarini2026Nonparametric,
  author = {Scagliarini, Michele},
  title = {Non-parametric time between events and amplitude methods for monitoring regional drought characteristics},
  journal = {Environmental and Ecological Statistics},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s10651-026-00760-3},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-026-00760-3}
}