Wang et al. (2026) Quantitative identification of the impact of human activities and climate change on sediment load in the Yellow River Basin of China

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-14
• Authors: Chaomei Wang, Baofu Li, Tao Pan, Yanfeng Chen, Zhaodan Cao, Yanhua Qin, Fan Yang
• DOI: 10.1007/s10661-026-15139-x

Research Groups

• Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory for Geo-Information, Institute of Yellow River Ecology, School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao, People’s Republic of China
• Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of China
• Meteorological Service Center of Shandong Province, Jinan, People’s Republic of China

Short Summary

This study quantitatively identified the contributions of climate change and human activities to sediment load variations across the Yellow River Basin from 1961 to 2022, revealing a progressive shift from climate-dominated to human-dominated controls, particularly in midstream and downstream reaches.

Objective

• To quantitatively distinguish climatic and anthropogenic contributions to sediment load changes across river reaches in the Yellow River Basin to reveal dominant driving mechanisms.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Yellow River Basin (796,000 km² including 42,000 km² endorheic zones), specifically focusing on six inter-station drainage basins along the mainstem (defined by Tangnaihai, Toudaoguai, Longmen, Tongguan, Huayuankou, and Lijin hydrological stations).
• Temporal Scale: 1961–2022 (62 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Double Mass Curve (DMC) method, elastic coefficient analysis based on the fractal-Budyko framework, and Specific Sediment Yield (SSY) calculation.
• Data sources:
  • Monthly runoff and sediment discharge data (1961–2022) from six mainstem hydrological stations (Loess Plateau Scientific Data Center, China River Sediment Bulletin, China Water Resources Bulletin).
  • Precipitation data (1961–2022) with a spatial resolution of 0.1° (https://cstr.cn/18406.11.Atmos.tpdc.300523).
  • Potential evapotranspiration dataset (1961–2022) with a spatial resolution of 1 km (National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, https://data.tpdc.ac.cn).
  • Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data (ESA Copernicus PANDA platform, https://panda.copernicus.eu).
  • Land-use data (1990–2022) with a 30 m annual resolution (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8176941).

Main Results

• Sediment loads along the Yellow River mainstem significantly decreased from 1961 to 2022, except for the reach above Tangnaihai. The most drastic decline was recorded at Tongguan station, with a rate of −2.574 × 10⁷ tonnes per year.
• Reductions in sediment load were most pronounced during summer and autumn, particularly in midstream and downstream reaches.
• The correlation between runoff and sediment load gradually weakened from 1961 to 2022, indicating increasing anthropogenic interference. Runoff generally exerted a stronger influence than precipitation.
• Specific Sediment Yield (SSY) generally declined across the basin, with core erosion areas (Toudaoguai-Longmen, Longmen-Tongguan) experiencing over 80% reductions over six decades.
• Attribution Analysis (1981–2000): Climate change dominated sediment variations in the Tangnaihai headwater region, contributing 88.15–98.45%. Human activities were the primary drivers in mid- and downstream reaches, contributing 84.67–93.62%.
• Attribution Analysis (2001–2022): The contribution of human activities further increased across the basin, reaching 66.41–72.67% even in the Tangnaihai headwater region.
• Overall, the Yellow River Basin exhibits pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity in sediment dynamics, with a progressive shift from climate-dominated to human-dominated controls.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, basin-wide analysis of sediment load dynamics and their driving mechanisms across different river reaches and time periods over six decades (1961–2022), addressing limitations of previous localized or temporal studies.
• Quantitatively disentangles the respective contributions of climate change and human activities to sediment load variations using an integrated approach (Double Mass Curve and fractal-Budyko based elastic coefficient method), enhancing result reliability and precision.
• Reveals a progressive shift in dominant controls on sediment dynamics from climate to human activities, particularly highlighting the increasing influence of anthropogenic factors in the headwater region post-2001.
• Offers critical insights for optimizing integrated basin management strategies by elucidating the spatiotemporal heterogeneity and driving mechanisms of water-sediment relationships in a highly regulated river system.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (42171126)
• Taishan Scholars Project of Shandong Province (tsqn202306182)
• China National College Student Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program (202410446018)
• Rizhao Natural Science Foundation (RZ2024ZR17)

Citation

@article{Wang2026Quantitative,
  author = {Wang, Chaomei and Li, Baofu and Pan, Tao and Chen, Yanfeng and Cao, Zhaodan and Qin, Yanhua and Yang, Fan},
  title = {Quantitative identification of the impact of human activities and climate change on sediment load in the Yellow River Basin of China},
  journal = {Environmental Monitoring and Assessment},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s10661-026-15139-x},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-026-15139-x}
}