Gulistani et al. (2026) To examine the effects of flow analysis and climate change on integrated water resources of the Kokcha River Basin in Afghanistan using GIS software

Identification

• Journal: Natural Hazards
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-01
• Authors: Abbas Gulistani, Mehmet Kazım Yetik
• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07795-y

Research Groups

• Department of Environmental Engineering, Karabuk University, Karabuk, Turkey

Short Summary

This study investigates the long-term impacts of climate change on the integrated water resources of the Kokcha River Basin, Afghanistan, revealing a significant warming trend, substantial glacier retreat, and declining downstream river discharge, which collectively threaten water availability and necessitate urgent adaptive management strategies.

Objective

• To analyze the effects of climate change on the Kokcha River Basin's integrated water resources by comprehensively examining long-term hydroclimatic and environmental changes, specifically detecting and evaluating trends in temperature, precipitation, river discharge, and land cover from 1970 to 2023.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Kokcha River Basin, northeastern Afghanistan, covering approximately 28,580 square kilometers, located between 35°26′35″N–37°28′14″N latitudes and 68°32′18″E–71°38′12″E longitudes.
• Temporal Scale: Hydrometeorological data from 1970 to 2023; land cover analysis for 2017 and 2024.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Statistical trend methods: Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope test.
  • GIS-based analysis for data preprocessing, spatial pattern analysis, and watershed delineation.
  • Supervised Maximum Likelihood classification for land cover mapping.
• Data sources:
  • Hydrometeorological records (temperature, precipitation, river discharge) from 1970 to 2023, provided by the Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW) and the Afghanistan Meteorological Department, collected from four gauging stations (Near Keshem, Keshem, Near Jurm, Faizabad).
  • Landsat 8 and 9 OLI/TIRS satellite images (30 meter resolution) for land cover mapping in 2017 and 2024.
  • Digital Elevation Models (DEMs).
  • Soil data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Main Results

• A statistically significant warming trend of +0.21 °C per year (p < 0.001) was observed from 1979 to 2024, indicating an approximate increase of 9.9 °C over this period.
• Precipitation showed a slight but statistically insignificant decline of –1.07 millimeters per year (p = 0.278).
• Land cover analysis between 2017 and 2024 revealed a 34.5% reduction in snow and glacier extent, alongside a significant increase in rangeland area.
• Mean annual runoff at Near Keshem station decreased from approximately 5083 million cubic meters per year (1970–1978) to 5050 million cubic meters per year (2009–2022), indicating a declining trend in surface water availability.
• While glacial melt temporarily sustains flows in alpine regions, downstream river discharge has declined, leading to reduced vegetation cover, expansion of barren lands, and increased water scarcity.
• The basin exhibits a water potential of approximately 5050 million cubic meters per year at Near Keshem station, but future availability is threatened by continued warming and land degradation.
• Floods occur in two distinct seasons: spring flash floods (March–May) due to rainfall, and summer flooding (June–July) due to snowmelt.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, localized assessment of climate change impacts on water resources in the data-scarce Kokcha River Basin, integrating long-term hydrometeorological data, GIS, and statistical trend analysis.
• Quantifies significant warming trends, glacier retreat, and declining river discharge, highlighting the direct threats to water security and socioeconomic stability in the region.
• Emphasizes the urgent need for adaptive and integrated water resources management (IWRM) strategies, including groundwater recharge, efficient irrigation, and flood control, tailored to the specific challenges of the basin.
• Offers critical guidance for watershed management and the development of sustainable water supplies in Afghanistan, particularly in regions lacking comprehensive IWRM plans.

Funding

• This research received no external funding.

Citation

@article{Gulistani2026To,
  author = {Gulistani, Abbas and Yetik, Mehmet Kazım},
  title = {To examine the effects of flow analysis and climate change on integrated water resources of the Kokcha River Basin in Afghanistan using GIS software},
  journal = {Natural Hazards},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s11069-025-07795-y},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07795-y}
}