Li et al. (2026) Shifts in precipitation and associated large-scale climate patterns in Northeast China

Identification

• Journal: Natural Hazards
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-01
• Authors: Xinyan Li, Shengpin Yu, Zuohui Cai, Hao Wu, Ye Chen
• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-026-08080-2

Research Groups

• Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Genesis and Remediation of Groundwater Pollution, School of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, East China University of Technology, Nanchang, China
• Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effect in Arid Region of Ministry of Education, Chang’an University, Xi’an, China
• Nanchang Key Laboratory of Hydrogeology and High Quality Groundwater Resources Exploitation and Utilization, Jiangxi Institute of Survey & Design LTD, Nanchang, China
• Hydrogeological Brigade of Jiangxi Geological Bureau, Nanchang, China
• State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Resources and Environment, East China University of Technology, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China
• Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co., Ltd, Fuzhou, China

Short Summary

This study investigates precipitation changes in Northeast China from 1985–2020, identifying a robust regime shift from significant drying (1985–2000) to wetting (2001–2020) characterized by increased frequency and intensity of extreme events, particularly in mountainous regions, linked to anomalous monsoon dynamics and strengthened large-scale climate drivers.

Objective

• To comprehensively reassess precipitation regime changes in Northeast China over recent decades, elucidating the temporal and spatial structure of recent hydroclimatic transitions and providing a scientific basis for understanding precipitation-related hazards.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Northeast China, an area of 1.44 million square kilometers, spanning 38°40′N to 53°34′N latitude and 115°05′E to 135°02′E longitude.
• Temporal Scale: 1985–2020 (36 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Piecewise linear regression (with Monte Carlo simulations for robustness)
  • Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis
  • Mann-Kendall test (with Trend-Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW) procedure)
  • Stepwise regression (bidirectional, using Akaike information criterion (AIC))
  • Partial correlation analysis
  • Standard normal homogeneity test
  • Local polynomial regression (LOESS)
• Data sources:
  • High-quality daily precipitation data from 101 meteorological stations (National Meteorological Information Centre of China Meteorological Data Service Centre).
  • Monthly wind fields (0.25 degree resolution) at 850 hPa from ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5).
  • 20 large-scale climate indices (e.g., EP-NP, NAO, NP Index, PDO, PNA, AAO, AO, SOI, Niño 1+2, Niño 3, Niño 3.4, Niño 4, TNA, TSA, AMM, PMM, AMO, DMI, EMI, SCAND) from NOAA.

Main Results

• A robust regime shift in precipitation occurred around 2000–2001, transitioning from a significant drying trend (1985–2000, -7.3 mm/year, p < 0.05) to a wetting trend (2001–2020, +6.6 mm/year, p < 0.05).
• Monthly analyses reveal a redistribution of precipitation, with declining mid-summer (July) precipitation and increasing contributions from May and late summer (August-September) post-2000.
• Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis confirmed a reorganization of spatial variability, suggesting regions like the Lesser Khingan Range and Liaohe Plain are now highly responsive to precipitation fluctuations.
• Pre-2000 precipitation reductions were concentrated in the plains, coinciding with decreased precipitation frequency.
• Post-2000 wetting is characterized by increases in precipitation frequency and event intensity, supported by significant rises in moderate (R10, R20), heavy, and extreme precipitation indices (R95p, R99p, Rx1day, Rx5day), particularly in mountainous regions.
• Atmospheric analyses suggest the transition is linked to anomalous monsoon dynamics (e.g., anomalous northerly winds in July, cyclonic anomalies in August, southerly/easterly winds in September) and a strengthened influence of large-scale climate drivers.
• The Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern showed a marked increase in statistical association (65.3%) with precipitation after 2000, alongside the North Pacific (NP) Index and Arctic Oscillation (AO).

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, multi-faceted reassessment of precipitation regime changes in Northeast China, integrating turning-point detection, spatial pattern analysis, monthly variability, and extreme indices.
• Identifies a robust and statistically significant shift from a drying to a wetting trend around 2000–2001, detailing the spatio-temporal characteristics and changes in precipitation frequency and intensity.
• Highlights a critical spatial shift in precipitation increases from plains before 2000 to mountainous regions thereafter, with important implications for flood and landslide risks.
• Links the observed hydroclimatic transitions to specific anomalous monsoon dynamics and a strengthened influence of large-scale climate drivers, particularly the Pacific–North American pattern.
• Emphasizes the urgent need for updated regional hazard mitigation and water resource management strategies in response to these evolving precipitation regimes.

Funding

• Nanchang Key Laboratory of Hydrogeology and High Quality Groundwater Resources Exploitation and Utilization (20241C21)
• Key Technologies and Emergency Utilization of Typical groundwater Source Resources Evaluation in Jiangxi Province (2023KDG01010)
• Research on Groundwater Emergency Source Water Search Mode in Jiangxi Province (2023JXDZKJRC07)
• Jiangxi Provincial Natural Science Foundation (20252BAC200267)
• Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, CHD (300102291502 and 300102290502)
• East China University of Technology Research Foundation for Advanced Talents (DHBK2019101 and DHBK2019100)
• Major Science and Technology Project of the Ministry of Water Resources (SKS-2022085)
• Fujian Provincial Natural Science Foundation Project (2024J08113)

Citation

@article{Li2026Shifts,
  author = {Li, Xinyan and Yu, Shengpin and Cai, Zuohui and Wu, Hao and Chen, Ye},
  title = {Shifts in precipitation and associated large-scale climate patterns in Northeast China},
  journal = {Natural Hazards},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s11069-026-08080-2},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-08080-2}
}