Guo et al. (2026) Quantitative Research on the Interaction Relationship between Water and Land Resources Based on the Binary Water Cycle

Identification

• Journal: Water Resources Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-01
• Authors: Xi Guo, Lewei Yu, Mengmeng Jiang, Weijing Wang
• DOI: 10.1007/s11269-026-04565-8

Research Groups

• School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China

Short Summary

This study quantitatively analyzes the dynamic feedback between water and land resources in Luoyang City, China, using a "natural-social" binary water cycle framework, finding that cultivated land expansion negatively impacts available water long-term, while precipitation is the primary positive determinant.

Objective

• To investigate the effects of different types of water resources on land-use structure changes and how alterations in land use influence regional water availability, based on the "natural-social" binary water cycle theory.
• To quantitatively examine the dynamic feedback relationships between water and land resources.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Luoyang City, Henan Province, China, covering a total area of 15,230 square kilometers. The study area is divided into various districts and counties.
• Temporal Scale: Data from 2003 to 2022. Panel data models used data from 2003 to 2021, while VAR models used data from 2003 to 2022.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Vector Autoregression (VAR) model
  • Panel Data models (specifically, a two-way fixed effects model with bidirectional clustering robust standard errors)
• Data sources:
  • Water volume and ecological environment data (2003-2022) from the Statistical Yearbook of Henan Province, Statistical Yearbook of Luoyang City, and Luoyang Water Resources Bulletin.
  • 30-meter resolution land-use data (2003-2022) derived from the annual 30-meter land cover raster data of China (1990–2022), released by Professors Yang Jie and Huang Xin from Wuhan University.

Main Results

• Impact of Water Resources on Land Use (Panel Data Model):
  • A 1% increase in agricultural water consumption leads to a 0.141% increase in cultivated land area.
  • A 1% increase in ecological water consumption results in a 0.038% decrease in artificial ecological area, indicating initial positive results from water-saving initiatives in artificial ecological land.
  • No significant relationship was detected between residential area and construction land water use, possibly due to industrial upgrading and water-saving appliance adoption.
• Impact of Land Use on Available Water (VAR Model - Long-term equilibrium):
  • Precipitation is the key positive factor influencing long-term available water, with an elasticity coefficient approaching 1 (0.9996), indicating high climate dependence.
  • Expansion of cultivated land area exerts the largest long-term negative pressure on available water (coefficient -0.4588).
  • Residential construction areas (coefficient -0.1707) and forest and grassland areas (coefficient -0.0805) have relatively minor long-term negative impacts on available water.
• Impact of Land Use on Available Water (VAR Model - Short-term dynamics):
  • No immediate statistically significant causal relationship was found between available water, precipitation, and various land-use areas in the short term, suggesting external factors and policy constraints obscure immediate predictive relationships.
  • Cultivated land expansion triggers the maximum short-term decline in available water in the second response period, but short-term impacts are unstable.
  • The system exhibits dynamic recovery, with effects on available water diminishing to zero after approximately 10 periods.
• Luoyang City has average annual water resources of 2.817 billion cubic meters and an average annual precipitation of 0.71354 meters (713.54 mm) from 2003 to 2022.
• With per capita water resources of 390 cubic meters, Luoyang is classified as a moderately water-scarce city, with shallow groundwater extraction accounting for 80% of its total supply.

Contributions

• Applies the "natural-social" binary water cycle theory to quantitatively analyze the dynamic feedback relationships between water and land resources, addressing a gap in studies that often treat these resources in isolation or focus solely on natural cycles.
• Utilizes both Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Panel Data models to provide a comprehensive analysis of interactions from both water-to-land and land-to-water perspectives.
• Provides specific quantitative relationships and effect coefficients for various water-land interactions within an urban context (Luoyang City), offering actionable insights for regional resource management.
• Integrates social, economic, and ecological factors into the analysis of water and land resource coupling, moving beyond studies that primarily focus on resource quantity or limited aspects of interaction.

Funding

• Henan Provincial Science and Technology Research Project [grant numbers 252102321112]

Citation

@article{Guo2026Quantitative,
  author = {Guo, Xi and Yu, Lewei and Jiang, Mengmeng and Wang, Weijing},
  title = {Quantitative Research on the Interaction Relationship between Water and Land Resources Based on the Binary Water Cycle},
  journal = {Water Resources Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s11269-026-04565-8},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-026-04565-8}
}