Unnithan et al. (2026) Probabilistic Flood Inundation Prediction Using Copula-Corrected Precipitation Forecast

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Water Resources Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-01
• Authors: S L Kesav Unnithan, Basudev Biswal, Christoph Rüdiger, Subimal Ghosh, Amit Kumar Dubey
• DOI: 10.1007/s11269-026-04894-8

Research Groups

• Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Bombay
• Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Kerala

Short Summary

This study proposes a flood inundation forecasting system that incorporates a copula-corrected forecast rainfall mechanism to improve the accuracy of flood predictions. The system was successfully tested in Kerala, India, with a high degree of accuracy at short lead times.

Objective

• To develop an effective flood inundation forecasting system for emergency management and risk reduction

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale (Kerala, India)
• Temporal Scale: Short-term to medium-term (1-day to 7-day lead time)

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Dynamic Budyko hydrological model
  • Conceptual flood inundation model
• Data sources:
  • Observed rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD)
  • Forecast rainfall data from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

Main Results

• The forecast inundation captured 61.7% of the observed flooded locations at a one-day lead time, decreasing to 48.3% at a seven-day lead time.
• The system achieved runtimes of 2–3 h/lead day.

Contributions

• This study provides an innovative approach to flood forecasting by incorporating a copula-corrected forecast rainfall mechanism and demonstrates its effectiveness in improving the accuracy of flood predictions.

Funding

• Not specified

Citation

@article{Unnithan2026Probabilistic,
  author = {Unnithan, S L Kesav and Biswal, Basudev and Rüdiger, Christoph and Ghosh, Subimal and Dubey, Amit Kumar},
  title = {Probabilistic Flood Inundation Prediction Using Copula-Corrected Precipitation Forecast},
  journal = {Water Resources Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s11269-026-04894-8},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-026-04894-8}
}