Hamed et al. (2026) How the carbon emission reduction scenarios affect drought patterns in the Middle East and North Africa region

Identification

• Journal: Acta Geophysica
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-21
• Authors: Mohammed Magdy Hamed, Safi Ullah, Mohamed Salem Nashwan, Shamsuddin Shahid
• DOI: 10.1007/s11600-026-01841-4

Research Groups

• Construction and Building Engineering Department, College of Engineering and Technology, Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT), Giza and Cairo, Egypt
• Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor, Malaysia
• Hamad Bin Khalifa University (HBKU), Qatar Foundation, Doha, Qatar
• Regional Climate Change Center, National Center for Meteorology, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Short Summary

This study assesses how carbon emission reduction scenarios, aligned with the Paris Agreement's 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming targets, affect drought patterns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The findings project a significant increase in drought frequency, intensity, and duration across MENA, with extreme droughts becoming dominant, primarily driven by increased potential evapotranspiration variability, even under these mitigation efforts.

Objective

• To assess changes in drought frequency, intensity, and duration in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region under carbon emission reduction scenarios aligned with the Paris Agreement (limiting global warming to 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C).
• To evaluate the impact of a 0.5 °C temperature increase (from SSP1-1.9 to SSP1-2.6) on drought characteristics in the MENA region.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, spanning longitudes 17°W to 60°E and latitudes 9°N to 38°N, covering an area of 13.3 million km².
• Temporal Scale:
  • Historical period: 1975–2014
  • Near future: 2020–2059
  • Far future: 2060–2099
  • Climate scenarios: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-1.9 (SSP1-1.9, peaking global mean warming at 1.4 °C by 2100) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-2.6 (SSP1-2.6, projecting an increase of 1.8 °C by 2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) calculated at 3, 6, 9, and 12-month timescales.
  • Penman–Monteith equation for Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) calculations.
  • Quantile Mapping (QM) for bias correction of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs.
  • Ensemble of eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) GCMs.
• Data sources:
  • ERA5 reanalysis dataset (reference for historical period and bias correction).
  • Monthly outputs from eight CMIP6 GCMs for SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios, including maximum/minimum temperatures, surface downwelling/upwelling shortwave flux, relative humidity, wind speed, rainfall, surface pressure, and surface downwelling/upwelling longwave flux.

Main Results

• Drought events are projected to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration across the MENA region over time.
• Extreme drought is projected to be the most common category, increasing by 20–60% over most of MENA under a 1.5 °C temperature rise (SSP1-1.9). Moderate and severe droughts may increase by 0–20%.
• North African countries (e.g., Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Mauritania, western Sudan, Algeria, Morocco) are projected to experience the most intense drought events (5–15% increase in intensity).
• Future drought frequency and intensity are projected to be higher in the far future compared to the near future, primarily due to increased potential evapotranspiration (PET) variability.
• A 0.5 °C increase beyond the 1.5 °C warming threshold (SSP1-2.6 vs. SSP1-1.9) is expected to expand the spatial extent of extreme and severe droughts by 40–60% over the southern belt of MENA, significant parts of Sudan, Egypt, Libya, and the northeastern Arabian Peninsula.
• Longer-scale droughts (12-month) are projected to have higher frequency, intensity, and duration compared to shorter-scale droughts (3, 6, 9-month) in the future, indicating prolonged extreme drought episodes.
• Regions ranging from 74,000 to 702,000 km² that were not under drought in the base period are expected to face moderate drought for 3 to 6 months in the near future.

Contributions

• First study to comprehensively assess drought frequency, intensity, and duration changes in the MENA region using a robust multimodel ensemble of eight CMIP6 GCMs under the specific Paris Agreement warming targets (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6).
• Quantifies the regional implications of a relatively small 0.5 °C temperature increase on drought characteristics in a climate hotspot, highlighting its exacerbating effect on water scarcity and agricultural vulnerability.
• Provides crucial, policy-relevant insights for policymakers and stakeholders to understand potential drought hazards and inform essential adaptation strategies, even if global warming targets are met.
• Identifies increased potential evapotranspiration (PET) variability as the dominant factor driving future drought intensification in the MENA region.

Funding

The authors received no financial support for this article’s research, authorship, and publication.

Citation

@article{Hamed2026How,
  author = {Hamed, Mohammed Magdy and Ullah, Safi and Nashwan, Mohamed Salem and Shahid, Shamsuddin},
  title = {How the carbon emission reduction scenarios affect drought patterns in the Middle East and North Africa region},
  journal = {Acta Geophysica},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s11600-026-01841-4},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-026-01841-4}
}