Ahmed et al. (2026) Three decades of vegetation change in Jabel Marra: climate drivers and post-conflict vegetation dynamics

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Identification

• Journal: Environmental Earth Sciences
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-10
• Authors: Abdalrahman Ahmed, Kornél Czimber, Saralees Nadarajah, Elmugheira Mockarram Ibrahim Mohammed, Ahmed Abdallah Adam Mohamed, Faisal Ismail Musa
• DOI: 10.1007/s12665-026-13109-7

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study analyzed vegetation dynamics in the Jabel Marra region of Sudan from 1994 to 2024, finding a significant increase in greenness primarily driven by precipitation and temperature variability.

Objective

• To investigate long-term vegetation changes and their relationship with climate variability in the semi-arid and conflict-affected environment of Jabel Marra, Central Darfur.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Jabel Marra region, Central Darfur, Sudan (with specific focus on mid-to-high elevation areas).
• Temporal Scale: 1994–2024 (30 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Mann-Kendall trend test, Sen’s slope estimator, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and correlation analysis.
• Data sources: Landsat-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), CHIRPS precipitation data, and MERRA-2 temperature data.

Main Results

• Vegetation Trends: Annual NDVI showed a significant positive trend (Mann–Kendall Z = 4.78, p < 0.001) with a Sen’s slope of 0.00143 NDVI units year⁻¹, concentrated mainly in mid-to-high elevation areas.
• Climate Trends: Temperature increased consistently (R² = 0.51), while precipitation exhibited high interannual variability (R² = 0.06).
• Climate-Vegetation Correlation: NDVI was positively correlated with precipitation (r = 0.48) and negatively correlated with temperature (r = −0.57).
• Drought Analysis: SPEI revealed recurrent drought episodes before 2018, followed by a transition to predominantly wetter conditions.

Contributions

• Provides a long-term assessment of vegetation dynamics in a data-scarce, conflict-affected dryland environment, demonstrating the effectiveness of integrating satellite observations and climate datasets for sustainable land management.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Ahmed2026Three,
  author = {Ahmed, Abdalrahman and Czimber, Kornél and Nadarajah, Saralees and Mohammed, Elmugheira Mockarram Ibrahim and Mohamed, Ahmed Abdallah Adam and Musa, Faisal Ismail},
  title = {Three decades of vegetation change in Jabel Marra: climate drivers and post-conflict vegetation dynamics},
  journal = {Environmental Earth Sciences},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s12665-026-13109-7},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-026-13109-7}
}