Wang et al. (2026) Integrated analysis of surface water-groundwater interactions and enhanced hydrological forecasting of glacierized river in cold and arid regions

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Identification

• Journal: Applied Water Science
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-22
• Authors: Wenjun Wang, Aihua Long, Jiawen Yu, Haowei Tian, Yi Xiao, Qi Li, Yang Liu, Jingzhou Zhang, Xuan Liang, Yuanyuan Meng
• DOI: 10.1007/s13201-026-02946-3

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study employs a coupled SWAT-MODFLOW model to quantify surface water-groundwater interactions and project future runoff trends in the glacierized headwater catchment of the Bortala River under CMIP6 climate scenarios.

Objective

• To clarify the relationship between surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) interactions and predict future hydrological changes in a typical glacierized, spring-fed watershed in Northwest China.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Headwater catchment of the Bortala River, Northwest China.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1971–2020) and future projections (up to the end of the century).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Coupled SWAT-MODFLOW (integrated with a glacier module), Budyko framework, and CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).
• Data sources: Observed hydrometeorological parameters for model calibration and validation.

Main Results

• Historical SW-GW Interaction (1971–2020): Surface water was the dominant recharge source for groundwater, although it experienced a cumulative reduction of 26.7% from the initial historical value, with an average annual decline rate of 0.45%.
• Future Runoff Projections: Total watershed runoff is expected to increase by 13.6% under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and 14.2% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.
• Runoff Inflection Point: A peak/inflection point in runoff is projected for the 2070s (± 10 years), occurring approximately 10 years earlier under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario.
• Hydrological Risks: Intensified precipitation extremes are expected to trigger severe hydrological risks, particularly around the 2040s and 2070s.

Contributions

• Provides a quantitative assessment of surface water-groundwater interactions in a glacierized arid region, establishing a simulation system for decomposition and reconstruction of hydrological changes under future climate scenarios.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Wang2026Integrated,
  author = {Wang, Wenjun and Long, Aihua and Yu, Jiawen and Tian, Haowei and Xiao, Yi and Li, Qi and Liu, Yang and Zhang, Jingzhou and Liang, Xuan and Meng, Yuanyuan},
  title = {Integrated analysis of surface water-groundwater interactions and enhanced hydrological forecasting of glacierized river in cold and arid regions},
  journal = {Applied Water Science},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s13201-026-02946-3},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-026-02946-3}
}