Alzahrani et al. (2026) Monte Carlo approach for modelling uncertainty in hydraulic flood routing in ephemeral streams in arid regions

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Identification

• Journal: Applied Water Science
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-22
• Authors: Fahad Alzahrani, Abdulaziz Alqaraway, Abdullah Alodah, Amro Elfeki
• DOI: 10.1007/s13201-026-02970-3

Research Groups

• Hydrology Laboratory, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM)
• Water Resources Department, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture

Short Summary

This study introduces a novel convection–decay-based flood routing model to simulate hydrograph evolution in arid environments with high uncertainty. The model is successfully applied to the Yiba Basin in western Saudi Arabia, providing a robust tool for predicting flood behavior under uncertain conditions.

Objective

• Investigate the feasibility of a convection–decay-based flood routing model for simulating flood-wave propagation in ephemeral streams of arid regions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Watershed scale ( Yiba Basin)
• Temporal Scale: Event-based, with 22 historical storm events analyzed

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Convection–decay-based flood routing model
• Data sources: Observed inflow and outflow hydrographs from four hydrometric stations, satellite data for precipitation and land cover characterization

Main Results

• The convection–decay-based model accurately simulates flood-wave propagation in the Yiba Basin, with high correlation coefficients (r = 0.72 for peak flows and r = 0.73 for runoff volume) and low root mean square errors (RMSE = 30.9 m^3/s for peak flows and RMSE = 11.9 MCM for runoff volume).
• The model's probabilistic framework enables a more realistic understanding of flood behavior, supporting sustainable flood management in data-scarce arid regions.

Contributions

• This study provides an original contribution to the field of hydrology by developing a novel convection–decay-based flood routing model specifically tailored for ephemeral streams in arid environments.
• The model's application to the Yiba Basin demonstrates its potential as a practical and adaptable tool for resilient infrastructure design and disaster preparedness under uncertain hydrologic conditions.

Funding

• This research was funded by the King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM) through project number 2020-01-01-HYD.

Citation

@article{Alzahrani2026Monte,
  author = {Alzahrani, Fahad and Alqaraway, Abdulaziz and Alodah, Abdullah and Elfeki, Amro},
  title = {Monte Carlo approach for modelling uncertainty in hydraulic flood routing in ephemeral streams in arid regions},
  journal = {Applied Water Science},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s13201-026-02970-3},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-026-02970-3}
}