Jaiswal et al. (2026) Assessment of Water Supply and Demand in a Watershed with Climate Change Impacts on Potential Adaptation Strategies

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Research
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-30
• Authors: Smita Jaiswal, Susama Sudhishri, Jyoti P. Patil, Man Singh, Anchal Dass, Khajanchi Lal, Anil Kumar Mishra, Prashant Singh, Love Kumar, Pankaj Malkani
• DOI: 10.1007/s40003-025-00934-8

Research Groups

• ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, India
• Rani Lakshmibai Central Agricultural University, Jhansi, India
• National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, India
• Amar Singh College, CCS University, Lakhaoti, Meerut, India
• Bihar Agricultural University, Sabour, Bhagalpur, Bihar, India
• Rajendra Prasad Central Agricultural University, KVK Turki, Pusa, Bihar, India

Short Summary

This study assesses future water supply and demand in the Nuh watershed, northwest India, under climate change (RCP 4.5) using the WEAP model, revealing significant unmet agricultural water demand and proposing adaptation strategies for sustainable water management.

Objective

• To optimize the utilization of available water resources to sustain agriculture in the Nuh watershed, a chronically water-scarce semi-arid region.
• To customize the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model for the Nuh watershed to develop an integrated water management plan.
• To estimate total water availability in the watershed for optimal suggestions regarding the number and locations of water bodies.
• To assess future water demands and unmet demands by integrating climate projections (RCP 4.5) from 2011 to 2050.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Nuh watershed, covering parts of Mewat and Gurgaon districts, Haryana, northwest India. The watershed area is approximately 335 square kilometers, located between 28°00’00"N- 28°15’00"N Latitude and 76°55’00”- 77°10’ 00” E Longitude.
• Temporal Scale:
  • Base Year: 2010
  • Calibration/Validation Period: 2010–2020 (for canal flow data)
  • Historical Precipitation Baseline: 1999–2010
  • Projection Period: 2011–2050 (climate projections, water demand, and supply assessment)
  • Total Study Period for Precipitation Statistics: 21 years (1999–2020)
  • Water Demand/Supply Projection Period: 43 years (2022–2050)

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model (customized, calibrated using the PEST tool).
  • GFDL-ESM2M (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with Modular Ocean Model version 4) for climate projections under IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5.
  • CROPWAT model for calculating crop water requirements.
  • NRCS-CN method for estimating surface runoff.
• Data sources:
  • Satellite/Remote Sensing: Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from Alaska Satellite Facility (ASF) DAAC (12.5 m spatial resolution); Sentinel-2A satellite data (10 m spatial resolution) for Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) mapping.
  • Observation Data: Measured canal flow data (2010–2020) from the Irrigation Department of Nuh; groundwater draft and annual groundwater recharge from the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB, 2020); crop area, irrigated/unirrigated area, and crop water requirements from the Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Department of Gurgaon, Haryana; FAO livestock standard water demand rates.
  • Reanalysis/Gridded Data: Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded precipitation data (1999–2020) for bias correction of GCM data.
  • Other Data: Hydrological parameters, soil properties, meteorological/climatic data (temperature, precipitation), irrigation data, and crop yield data.

Main Results

• The developed WEAP model demonstrated excellent performance in simulating canal flow, with a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.99, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.3, and a Coefficient of Determination (R²) of 0.81.
• Climate projections (GFDL-ESM2M, RCP 4.5) indicate substantial variations in future annual rainfall (2011–2050), with the driest year predicted around 2044–2045 (less than 180 mm average rainfall) and the highest average rainfall around 1000 mm in 2013–2014.
• Total canal water availability in the watershed was estimated at 1161.5 million cubic meters (Mm³). Annual groundwater recharge was 97.41 Mm³, with an annual groundwater draft of 50 Mm³. The runoff coefficient was determined to be 18%.
• Agricultural water demand is projected to be higher during the rabi season compared to the kharif season due to cropping patterns; for instance, wheat requires approximately 456.61 mm per unit area. Paddy accounted for the highest agricultural water demand, approximately 320 Mm³, representing 81.5% of the total for the 2011–2050 reference period.
• Both agricultural and livestock sectors are projected to face increasing unmet water demands, particularly for livestock from 2039–2050. The overall unmet demand shows a steadily rising trend over the modeled years (2011–2050).
• Water demand for agriculture is projected to increase by 21% from 2011 to 2030, followed by increments of 0.3% and 0.4% for 2031–2040 and 2041–2050, respectively. Livestock demand is projected to increase by 29% from 2011 to 2030, followed by a 0.2% increase, while water supply remains relatively constant, leading to a persistent demand-supply gap.

Contributions

• This study provides the first comprehensive application and customization of the WEAP model for integrated water management planning in the Nuh watershed, a semi-arid region of Haryana, India.
• It quantifies future water supply and demand for both agricultural and livestock sectors under climate change (RCP 4.5), identifying critical periods and sectors facing significant unmet water demands.
• The research develops a robust and highly accurate WEAP model for simulating canal flow and hydrological processes, enhancing the reliability of long-term water management strategies.
• It proposes specific, tailored adaptation strategies, including promoting water-efficient crops, improved farming practices, optimal placement of water bodies, efficient feed and fodder management, livestock productivity enhancement, and demand management, to address projected water scarcity.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Citation

@article{Jaiswal2026Assessment,
  author = {Jaiswal, Smita and Sudhishri, Susama and Patil, Jyoti P. and Singh, Man and Dass, Anchal and Lal, Khajanchi and Mishra, Anil Kumar and Singh, Prashant and Kumar, Love and Malkani, Pankaj},
  title = {Assessment of Water Supply and Demand in a Watershed with Climate Change Impacts on Potential Adaptation Strategies},
  journal = {Agricultural Research},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s40003-025-00934-8},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s40003-025-00934-8}
}