Talpur et al. (2026) Hydroclimatic variability and trend analysis of the Arno River basin, Tuscany, Italy

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Identification

• Journal: Sustainable Water Resources Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-12
• Authors: Hafeez Ahmed Talpur, Aziz Ahmed, Amanullah Mahar, Sadaf Nasreen, Shakeel Ahmed Talpur, Piero Di Carlo
• DOI: 10.1007/s40899-026-01399-5

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study analyzes hydroclimatic trends in the Arno River basin from 1994 to 2023, identifying significant warming in summer and autumn but no significant monotonic trends in precipitation or streamflow.

Objective

• To evaluate hydroclimatic variability and trends in temperature, precipitation, and streamflow within the Arno River basin to establish an updated observational baseline for climate-adaptation planning.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Arno River basin, Tuscany, Italy.
• Temporal Scale: 1994–2023 (30 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Autocorrelation-corrected modified Mann–Kendall tests, Sen’s slope estimates (with 95% confidence intervals), Benjamini–Hochberg multiple-testing correction, and change-point diagnostics.
• Data sources: Daily temperature, precipitation, and streamflow records.

Main Results

• Temperature: Statistically significant warming detected in summer (+0.066 °C yr⁻¹) and autumn (+0.073 °C yr⁻¹). The annual mean temperature increased by +0.052 °C yr⁻¹ (+1.56 °C over the period), though this was not significant after multiple-testing correction. A temperature change-point was identified around 2010.
• Precipitation and Streamflow: No significant monotonic trends were detected at annual or seasonal scales. High interannual variability was observed, with coefficients of variation (CV) reaching approximately 36% for precipitation and 66% for streamflow.
• Correlations: Strong positive coupling between precipitation and streamflow (ρ = 0.51–0.93). A significant negative correlation was found between summer temperature and streamflow (ρ = −0.53).
• Spatial Patterns: Precipitation exhibited a clear orographic gradient, with higher values along the Apennine ridge compared to the lowlands.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, updated observational baseline of hydroclimatic trends for the Arno River basin, filling a gap in basin-scale syntheses for the Mediterranean region to support future monitoring and adaptation strategies.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Talpur2026Hydroclimatic,
  author = {Talpur, Hafeez Ahmed and Ahmed, Aziz and Mahar, Amanullah and Nasreen, Sadaf and Talpur, Shakeel Ahmed and Carlo, Piero Di},
  title = {Hydroclimatic variability and trend analysis of the Arno River basin, Tuscany, Italy},
  journal = {Sustainable Water Resources Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s40899-026-01399-5},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-026-01399-5}
}