Rico-Firo et al. (2026) Prioritizing Vulnerability in Mexican Aquifers Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Multi-Criteria Approach Based on GIS for Sustainable Water Management

Identification

• Journal: Earth Systems and Environment
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-13
• Authors: Celso Rico-Firo, José Luis Expósito-Castillo, María V. Esteller-Alberich, Juan Manuel Esquivel Martínez, Miguel Ángel Gómez-Albores, Jorge Paredes-Tavares
• DOI: 10.1007/s41748-026-01033-6

Research Groups

• Instituto Interamericano de Tecnología y Ciencias del Agua (IITCA), Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México (UAEMéx)
• SECIHTI-Centro Geo, Centro de Investigación en Ciencias de Información Geoespacial, A.C.

Short Summary

This study prioritizes Mexican aquifers based on water quantity vulnerability under climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) using a GIS-based Analytic Hierarchy Process, finding that 111 to 136 aquifers are of "very high priority," with 70 already overexploited.

Objective

• To prioritize Mexican aquifers based on water quantity vulnerability under climate change scenarios, integrating socioeconomic and hydrogeological criteria using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) within a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: National level, covering Mexico's approximately 1.964 million km² and its 653 aquifers.
• Temporal Scale: Historical climate data from 1910–2010; future climate projections for 2020–2080 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios; socioeconomic and hydrogeological data from 2020.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for multi-criteria evaluation and weighting.
  • Geographic Information System (GIS) using Idrisi TerrSet software for spatial analysis and mapping.
  • Four Global Circulation Models (GCMs): CNRMCM61HR, GISSE21G, MPIESM12HR, MRIESM2_0, for climate change projections.
  • Non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test for trend analysis of precipitation and average temperature.
  • Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) for factor aggregation.
• Data sources:
  • Climate data: CONABIO geoportal (historical, 1910–2010) and World Clim platform (future, 2020–2080) for precipitation and mean temperature (1 km resolution).
  • Socioeconomic and hydrogeological indicators (2020): National Water Information System (SINA) and 2020 Population and Housing Census (INEGI).
  • Official groundwater data from CONAGUA.

Main Results

• A country-level map was generated, prioritizing Mexican aquifers into five levels (very high, high, medium, low, very low).
• Under the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario, 111 aquifers were classified in the "very high priority" category.
• Under the more pessimistic SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario, the number of "very high priority" aquifers increased to 136.
• Notably, 70 of the identified high-priority aquifers are already in a state of overexploitation.
• The climate change indicator showed that aquifers in northern Mexico are most severely impacted, with the percentage of highly impacted aquifers increasing from 14% (91 aquifers) under SSP2-4.5 to 21% (137 aquifers) under SSP5-8.5.
• 34% (222 aquifers) exhibit high to very high groundwater dependence, predominantly in northern Mexico.
• 280 aquifers registered negative groundwater availability values in 2020, with a trend of increasing pressure from the central-southern to the northern regions.
• The AHP weighting process achieved an acceptable Consistency Index (CI) of 0.09.

Contributions

• Developed an integrated, robust, and replicable methodological framework for prioritizing Mexican aquifers, focusing on water quantity, by systematically incorporating socioeconomic, hydrogeological, and climate change criteria through AHP-GIS.
• Generated a spatial hierarchy of aquifers that facilitates the identification of critical areas for intervention, supporting more efficient resource allocation and the design of sustainable groundwater management strategies.
• The methodology aligns with national water management policies (e.g., National Water Program 2024–2030) and contributes to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 6, 11, 12, 13, 15).
• Provides novel and methodologically sound evidence for decision-making in groundwater management in Mexico, with high potential for replication in other countries facing similar water stress challenges.

Funding

• Autonomous University of the State of Mexico
• Postdoctoral fellowship from the Secretariat of Science, Humanities, Technology, and Innovation (SECIHTI)

Citation

@article{RicoFiro2026Prioritizing,
  author = {Rico-Firo, Celso and Expósito-Castillo, José Luis and Esteller-Alberich, María V. and Martínez, Juan Manuel Esquivel and Gómez-Albores, Miguel Ángel and Paredes-Tavares, Jorge},
  title = {Prioritizing Vulnerability in Mexican Aquifers Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Multi-Criteria Approach Based on GIS for Sustainable Water Management},
  journal = {Earth Systems and Environment},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s41748-026-01033-6},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-026-01033-6}
}