Baghel et al. (2026) Combined Impacts of Climate and Land-Use/Land-Cover Changes on the Flow Regime and Ecological Diversity in the Songkhram River Basin, A Tributary of the Mekong River

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Identification

• Journal: Earth Systems and Environment
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-10
• Authors: Triambak Baghel, Mukand S. Babel, Dibesh Khadka, Guillaume Lacombe, Sonu Kumar
• DOI: 10.1007/s41748-026-01331-z

Research Groups

• Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Khon Kaen University, Thailand
• Mekong River Commission (MRC), Vientiane, Lao PDR
• Center for Climate Change Studies, Khon Kaen University, Thailand

Short Summary

This study evaluates the combined impacts of climate change and land-use/land-cover alterations on river hydrology and ecological diversity in a tropical region using an integrated modeling framework. The results show that climate change dominates the effects of both drivers, leading to significant reductions in streamflow and ecological diversity.

Objective

• Investigate the individual and combined effects of projected climate change and land-use/land-cover scenarios on flow regimes and aquatic ecological diversity in the Songkhram River Basin, Thailand.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focuses on the Songkhram River Basin, a critical tributary of the Mekong River in northeast Thailand.
• Temporal Scale: The analysis covers the period 2026–2055 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for hydrological modeling
  • Dyna-CLUE model for simulating land-use dynamics
  • Bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP6 climate projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios
• Data sources:
  • Spatial information (land use, digital elevation model, soil, rivers, and population density)
  • Hydro-meteorological variables (rainfall, temperature)

Main Results

• Climate change alone will significantly reduce annual streamflow by up to 22%, shift seasonal water availability, and intensify hydrological extremes.
• Climate change substantially reduces ecological diversity, with the Shannon Diversity Index declining by 23.04% under SSP2-4.5 and 30.55% under SSP5-8.5.
• Conservation-oriented land-use/land-cover scenarios support biodiversity recovery, increasing the Shannon Diversity Index by up to 20.66%.
• When stressors are combined, climate change effects dominate, resulting in net declines in ecological diversity of 18.62%-23.87% relative to the baseline.

Contributions

This study provides robust scientific evidence that underscores the urgency of integrated land and water management strategies to build landscape resilience and safeguard riverine biodiversity across the Mekong region in a rapidly changing climate.

Funding

• This research was funded by the Thailand Research Fund (TRF) through grant number RSA6280001.
• Additional support was provided by the Center for Climate Change Studies, Khon Kaen University.

Citation

@article{Baghel2026Combined,
  author = {Baghel, Triambak and Babel, Mukand S. and Khadka, Dibesh and Lacombe, Guillaume and Kumar, Sonu},
  title = {Combined Impacts of Climate and Land-Use/Land-Cover Changes on the Flow Regime and Ecological Diversity in the Songkhram River Basin, A Tributary of the Mekong River},
  journal = {Earth Systems and Environment},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s41748-026-01331-z},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-026-01331-z}
}