Dervishi et al. (2026) Hydroclimatic vulnerability and electricity adequacy in Albania from 2000 to 2024 using generalized additive models

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Identification

• Journal: Discover Environment
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-07
• Authors: Raimonda Dervishi, Ahmed Kadhim Hussein, M. Saraswathy
• DOI: 10.1007/s44274-026-00984-x

Research Groups

• Department of Energy Systems and Environmental Management, University of Tirana
• Institute for Hydropower and Water Resources Management, Albanian Ministry of Infrastructure and Energy

Short Summary

This study examines how hydro-climatic and structural factors shape three key electricity-balance indicators in Albania's hydropower-dominated system. The results identify hydrological availability as the dominant driver of adequacy outcomes.

Objective

• Investigate the relationships between hydro-climatic variability, structural factors, and electricity balance performance indicators in Albania's hydropower-dominated system

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: National scale (Albania)
• Temporal Scale: Annual time series from 2000 to 2024

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Outcome-specific shrinkage-penalized generalized additive models (GAMs) within an Electricity Balance Performance Index (EBPI) framework
• Data sources: Annual electricity balance data for 2000–2024, including self-sufficiency (SS), import ratio (IR), and loss rate (LR)

Main Results

• Hydrological availability is the dominant driver of adequacy outcomes, with higher inflow associated with higher self-sufficiency and lower import dependence
• Industrial activity provides additional explanatory content for import intensity
• Temperature anomalies and GDP per capita contribute limited separable information once hydrological and structural dynamics are accounted for
• Loss dynamics follow a nonlinear time trend associated with gradual structural and institutional change

Contributions

• This study provides original insights into the relationships between hydro-climatic variability, structural factors, and electricity balance performance indicators in Albania's hydropower-dominated system
• The results highlight the policy significance of these relationships and provide a framework for scenario mapping across different inflow regimes

Funding

• This research was funded by the Albanian Ministry of Infrastructure and Energy (project code: HEP-2020) and the European Union's Horizon 2020 program (grant agreement No. 101006279).

Citation

@article{Dervishi2026Hydroclimatic,
  author = {Dervishi, Raimonda and Hussein, Ahmed Kadhim and Saraswathy, M.},
  title = {Hydroclimatic vulnerability and electricity adequacy in Albania from 2000 to 2024 using generalized additive models},
  journal = {Discover Environment},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s44274-026-00984-x},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s44274-026-00984-x}
}