Moradian et al. (2026) Climate change intensifies the temporal persistence of droughts through a shift from seasonal to prolonged drought regimes

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Identification

• Journal: Discover Environment
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-09
• Authors: Sogol Moradian, Salem Gharbia
• DOI: 10.1007/s44274-026-01028-0

Research Groups

Not specified

Short Summary

This study analyzes the temporal symmetry and persistence of global meteorological droughts using CMIP6 projections, finding a transition from seasonal droughts toward more persistent, multi-year drought regimes under future climate scenarios.

Objective

• To investigate changes in the temporal symmetry of global meteorological droughts, specifically evaluating the tendency for droughts to either remain confined within a single season or persist across consecutive seasons and years.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1985–2014) and future projections (2015–2100)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under two emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).
• Data sources: Bias-corrected simulations of monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration; drought quantification via the Standardised Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI).

Main Results

• Declines in SPEI are projected under both scenarios, with more intense drying observed under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5).
• Drought characteristics (frequency, duration, and severity) intensify most significantly during the warm season and extend into autumn.
• There is a documented increase in the continuity of droughts from summer to autumn, indicating a shift from predominantly seasonal behavior toward longer, more persistent, and potentially multi-year drought regimes.
• High-emission forcing amplifies these temporal shifts in drought persistence.

Contributions

• The study identifies a critical shift in the temporal structure of droughts, moving beyond simple magnitude/frequency changes to highlight "cross-season continuity." This underscores the necessity of incorporating drought persistence into climate risk assessments, water resource planning, and adaptation policies.

Funding

Not specified

Citation

@article{Moradian2026Climate,
  author = {Moradian, Sogol and Gharbia, Salem},
  title = {Climate change intensifies the temporal persistence of droughts through a shift from seasonal to prolonged drought regimes},
  journal = {Discover Environment},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s44274-026-01028-0},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s44274-026-01028-0}
}