Elias (2026) The uncertain future of the cryosphere

Identification

• Journal: Elsevier eBooks
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-01
• Authors: Scott A. Elias
• DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-323-85242-5.00054-3

Research Groups

Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States

Short Summary

This reference work synthesizes current understanding of the cryosphere's components, highlighting their rapid decline due to anthropogenic warming and projecting significant future losses, including the potential disappearance of sea ice and mountain glaciers by 2100.

Objective

• To provide a comprehensive overview of the Earth's cryosphere, detailing its current state, observed changes, and uncertain future trajectory in response to ongoing climate change.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with specific regional focus on High Mountain Asia, New Zealand, Europe, Western U.S. and Canada, South America, Africa (for mountain glaciers); Greenland and Antarctica (for ice sheets); Arctic (for permafrost and sea ice).
• Temporal Scale: Spans from the last 2.5 million years (historical context) to recent global mass balance surveys, and future predictions extending to 2100 and beyond (centuries).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not applicable (this is a synthesis of existing literature, not primary research using specific models).
• Data sources: Not explicitly stated as primary data for this chapter; it synthesizes findings from various observational studies, surveys, and climate model predictions from the broader scientific community.

Main Results

• The cryosphere, encompassing polar ice sheets, mountain glaciers, sea ice, and permafrost, is experiencing widespread melting due to greenhouse gas emissions, particularly at the poles.
• Mountain glaciers globally are in decline, with recent global mass balance surveys confirming significant losses across various regions.
• Both the Greenland (GrIS) and Antarctic (AIS) Ice Sheets are losing mass, with future trajectories indicating continued decline.
• Permafrost regions are warming, leading to changes in Arctic soil temperatures and potential emissions of carbon dioxide and methane.
• Sea ice extent and thickness are decreasing, impacting thermohaline circulation.
• Future predictions indicate that sea ice and mountain glaciers may largely disappear by 2100.
• Oceans have absorbed substantial heat, which will continue to warm the atmosphere for centuries, irrespective of future emission reductions.

Contributions

• This chapter serves as a comprehensive, up-to-date synthesis of the state and future of the cryosphere, integrating findings across its diverse components (mountain glaciers, ice sheets, permafrost, sea ice) into a single reference work. It highlights the interconnectedness of cryospheric changes and their long-term implications for the planet.

Funding

• No funding information was provided in the source text.

Citation

@article{Elias2026uncertain,
  author = {Elias, Scott A.},
  title = {The uncertain future of the cryosphere},
  journal = {Elsevier eBooks},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/b978-0-323-85242-5.00054-3},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-323-85242-5.00054-3}
}