Patricola-DiRosario et al. (2026) Tropical cyclones in a warming climate

Identification

• Journal: Elsevier eBooks
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-01
• Authors: Christina M. Patricola-DiRosario, Philip J. Klotzbach, Suzana J. Camargo, Emily Bercos-Hickey
• DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-443-15748-6.00038-1

Research Groups

• Atmosphere, and Climate, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States
• Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States
• Columbia Climate School, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
• Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
• Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States

Short Summary

This chapter reviews observations and numerical models used to study tropical cyclone activity, natural drivers, historical trends, and future projections, highlighting that while global tropical cyclone frequency projections lack consensus, intensity and precipitation are expected to increase.

Objective

• To review observations and numerical models for studying tropical cyclone activity, natural variability drivers, historical trends, and future projections, identifying key uncertainties and beneficial research directions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, focusing on tropical cyclone activity.
• Temporal Scale: Historical trends (past approximately 35 years) and future projections.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not specified; the chapter reviews the general use of "numerical models" (e.g., climate models, regional models) in tropical cyclone studies.
• Data sources: "Observations" (e.g., satellite, in-situ) and output from "numerical models."

Main Results

• In the past approximately 35 years, no significant trend in global tropical cyclone frequency has occurred; however, hurricane-strength tropical cyclone frequency has trended downward, and high-end rapid intensification (greater than 25.7 meters per second in 24 hours) has trended upward.
• There is no consensus on future changes in global tropical cyclone frequency.
• Future tropical cyclone intensity and precipitation are expected to increase.
• Tropical cyclone projections would benefit from improvements in climate model simulations of sea surface temperature, consensus on future projections of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation, and a greater understanding of how tropical cyclone precursors or "seeds" impact tropical cyclone activity.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive review of the current state of knowledge regarding tropical cyclone activity, its natural drivers, historical trends, and future projections in a warming climate.
• Identifies critical uncertainties in future tropical cyclone projections and outlines key research directions to reduce these uncertainties, including climate model biases, tropical cyclone-ocean interactions, and the role of tropical cyclone seeds and the environment.

Funding

• The provided text does not explicitly list specific funding projects, programs, or reference codes for this chapter.

Citation

@article{PatricolaDiRosario2026Tropical,
  author = {Patricola-DiRosario, Christina M. and Klotzbach, Philip J. and Camargo, Suzana J. and Bercos-Hickey, Emily},
  title = {Tropical cyclones in a warming climate},
  journal = {Elsevier eBooks},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/b978-0-443-15748-6.00038-1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-443-15748-6.00038-1}
}