Bastola et al. (2026) Drought resilience in South Asia under climate change: Exploring risks, opportunities, and future directions

Identification

• Journal: Elsevier eBooks
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-01
• Authors: Shiksha Bastola, Younghun Jung, Koshish Raj Maharjan, Anoop Valiya Veettil
• DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-443-44625-2.00010-2

Research Groups

• Department of Advanced Science and Technology Convergence, Kyungpook National University, Sangju, South Korea
• Asia Water Council Secretariat, Daejeon, South Korea
• Freelance Researcher, Kathmandu, Nepal
• Cooperative Agricultural Research Center, College of Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources, Prairie View A&M University, Prairie View, TX, United States

Short Summary

This study assesses future hydrological drought risk in South Asia under climate change using bias-corrected CMIP6 projections, revealing varied regional impacts such as increased drought duration in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, and more frequent but shorter events in Bhutan and India.

Objective

• To examine how hydrological drought risk in South Asia is changing due to global warming and a shifting monsoon season, using future climate projections.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: South Asia, including Pakistan, Nepal, India, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and Bangladesh.
• Temporal Scale: Baseline analysis and mid-century projections, with drought quantified at a 12-month scale.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: 13 global climate model outputs from CMIP6.
• Data sources: Bias-corrected CMIP6 data. Drought was quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at a 12-month scale. Future projections were assessed for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, using consistent event metrics of duration, severity, frequency, severe months, and average duration.

Main Results

• Baseline analysis shows Pakistan, Nepal, and India have higher cumulative drought burdens, while Sri Lanka and Bhutan are less exposed.
• Projections indicate Bangladesh will experience longer and more persistent droughts.
• Bhutan is projected to face more frequent but shorter drought events.
• India is likely to see an increase in hydrological drought events, even as average duration declines and total severity remains largely unchanged.
• Nepal and Pakistan show a decreasing trend in cumulative hydrological drought, though risks at shorter agricultural timescales may persist.
• Sri Lanka is projected to shift towards longer and more severe hydrological droughts under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive assessment of future hydrological drought risk across South Asia using multiple CMIP6 models and SSP scenarios.
• Quantifies drought using consistent event metrics (duration, severity, frequency, severe months, average duration) at a 12-month SPEI scale, offering detailed regional insights.
• Discusses practical options across water management, agriculture, policy, and cross-sector synergies, outlining challenges and financial needs for actionable strategies.

Funding

• Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Bastola2026Drought,
  author = {Bastola, Shiksha and Jung, Younghun and Maharjan, Koshish Raj and Veettil, Anoop Valiya},
  title = {Drought resilience in South Asia under climate change: Exploring risks, opportunities, and future directions},
  journal = {Elsevier eBooks},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/b978-0-443-44625-2.00010-2},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-443-44625-2.00010-2}
}