Sertyeșilișik et al. (2026) Urban drought under climate and land use change: Drivers, forecasting, and management

Identification

• Journal: Elsevier eBooks
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-01
• Authors: Pelin Sertyeșilișik, Anoop Valiya Veettil, Suat Irmak, Md Symum Islam
• DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-443-44625-2.00013-8

Research Groups

• Vocational School, Construction Department, Afyon Kocatepe University, Afyonkarahisar, Turkey
• Cooperative Agricultural Research Center, College of Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources, Prairie View A&M University, Prairie View, TX, United States
• College of Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources, Prairie View A&M University, Prairie View, TX, United States
• Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Penn State University, University Park, PA, United States

Short Summary

This chapter synthesizes the drivers, propagation, forecasting, and management of urban drought, highlighting its multilayered nature due to climate change, land-use change, and rising water demand. It concludes that proactive, locally tailored, and regionally coordinated strategies, supported by advanced forecasting and equitable governance, are crucial for ensuring urban water reliability in a warming world.

Objective

• To discuss urban drought as a multilayered risk shaped by climate change, land-use change, and rising water demand, and to present effective forecasting and management strategies.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Multi-continental (based on case studies from multiple continents).
• Temporal Scale: Historical (past century for drought variability) and future-oriented (addressing challenges in a warming world).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Machine learning (blended with remote sensing for forecasting).
• Data sources: Remote sensing, and derived indicators such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), and Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI).

Main Results

• Urban drought is a complex, multilayered risk intensified by climate change, land-use change (e.g., replacement of permeable landscapes with impermeable surfaces), and increasing water demand.
• Urbanization exacerbates drought impacts by accelerating surface runoff, reducing groundwater recharge, and increasing urban heat and peak water demand.
• A risk-based approach, linking hazard, exposure, and vulnerability through practical indicators (SPI, SRI, TVDI), is effective for assessing urban drought.
• Advanced forecasting methods, combining remote sensing with machine learning, can anticipate spatial dryness hot spots and operational demand peaks.
• Proactive, locally tailored, and regionally coordinated strategies are demonstrated through multi-continental case studies to effectively reduce the probability and consequences of urban drought.
• Future directions emphasize early action, equitable service delivery, interoperable data and governance, and continuous learning to maintain reliable, safe, and affordable city water.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive synthesis of urban drought, integrating its drivers (climate, land-use, demand), propagation pathways, and socioeconomic impacts.
• Highlights the critical role of urbanization in intensifying drought risks through altered hydrological processes and increased demand.
• Presents a practical, risk-based framework for urban drought assessment using established indicators and advanced forecasting techniques (remote sensing + machine learning).
• Emphasizes the importance of proactive, context-specific, and collaborative management strategies, supported by global case studies.
• Offers a forward-looking perspective on ensuring urban water security and resilience in the face of global warming.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Sertyeșilișik2026Urban,
  author = {Sertyeșilișik, Pelin and Veettil, Anoop Valiya and Irmak, Suat and Islam, Md Symum},
  title = {Urban drought under climate and land use change: Drivers, forecasting, and management},
  journal = {Elsevier eBooks},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/b978-0-443-44625-2.00013-8},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-443-44625-2.00013-8}
}