Köster et al. (2026) Projected shifts in climate and spring barley yields under future (CMIP6) scenarios across eight environmental zones in Europe

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-16
• Authors: M. Köster, M. Appiah, MP Hoffmann, I. Abdulai, A.H. Schulman, A. Maurer, K. Pillen, M. Trnka, M.A. Semenov, R.P. Rötter
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111024

Research Groups

• Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen, Germany
• Agvolution GmbH, Göttingen, Germany
• Institute of Biotechnology and Viikki Plant Science Centre, University of Helsinki, Finland
• Plant Production, Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Helsinki, Finland
• Institute of Agricultural and Nutritional Sciences, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
• Czech Globe Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences & Mendel University in Brno, Brno, Czech Republic
• Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University Brno, Brno, Czech Republic
• Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, UK
• Campus Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen, Germany

Short Summary

This Europe-wide study projects shifts in climate hazards and spring barley yields under CMIP6 scenarios, finding increased heat hazards and accelerated phenology leading to yield penalties, which are largely compensated by CO2 fertilization effects, highlighting the need for tailored adaptation strategies.

Objective

• To identify prevalent climate hazards to barley production across Europe and project changes in their frequency of occurrence under future climate scenarios.
• To project how barley yields will change under contrasting Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide ([CO2]) levels.
• To determine if sites across Europe are exposed to similar or different hazard combinations and how these are projected to change under future climate scenarios.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 19 contrasting sites aggregated into eight environmental zones (Boreal, Nemoral, Atlantic North, Atlantic Central, Continental, Pannonian, Mediterranean North, Mediterranean South) across Europe.
• Temporal Scale:
  • Baseline climate: 1985–2015
  • Future time slices: 2050s (2041–2060) and 2080s (2071–2090)
  • Climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM 7.10) barley model for crop growth, grain yield, and agro-climatic indicators.
  • LARS weather generator (LARS-WG) for downscaling climate projections.
  • Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble, utilizing a subset of six Global Climate Models (GCMs).
• Data sources:
  • Climate data: Daily weather data generated by LARS-WG based on CMIP6 GCMs and SSPs.
  • Atmospheric [CO2]: Baseline (368.9 ppm), 2050s (SSP1-2.6: 470 ppm; SSP5-8.5: 466 ppm), 2080s (SSP1-2.6: 563 ppm; SSP5-8.5: 868 ppm).
  • Soil data: Generic soil with low (104 mm) and favorable water retention capacity.
  • Management data: Sowing dates based on literature or local farmers' practices, nitrogen fertilization (e.g., 30 kg N ha-1 initial, 60 kg N ha-1 at sowing, 30 kg N ha-1 at tillering).
  • Cultivar data: Commercial cultivar RGT Planet (calibrated for Denmark, validated with Estonian and Polish data) and a second calibrated cultivar for winter sowing (validated with Italian and Spanish data).
  • Agro-climatic indicators: Eight indicators describing climatic effects on yield formation (Late frost, Heat anthesis, Extreme heat anthesis, Heat grain filling, Dry spell grain filling, Dry season, Wet early season, Lodging) and two productivity indicators (yield failure, yield instability).

Main Results

• Mean growing season temperatures are projected to increase by an average of 2 °C across environmental zones (ENZs), SSPs, and time slices, with stronger increases under SSP5-8.5 (3.3 °C) than SSP1-2.6 (1.7 °C).
• Phenological development is accelerated, leading to a shortening of the growing season across all ENZs, SSPs, and time slices, with the strongest reduction of 36 days in the Boreal zone under SSP5-8.5 for the 2080s.
• The likelihood of heat hazards increases across most ENZs, with heat during anthesis becoming "likely" in Boreal and Pannonian zones under SSP5-8.5 in the 2080s, and heat during grain filling becoming "very likely" or "virtually certain" in most ENZs. Late frost becomes "very unlikely" across all future scenarios.
• Under ambient [CO2] (369 ppm), yield declines are projected across most ENZs, with reductions exceeding 10% in five out of eight ENZs (Boreal, Nemoral, Continental, Pannonian, Mediterranean South) under SSP5-8.5 in the 2080s.
• Elevated [CO2] levels compensate or overcompensate for these yield losses, leading to unchanged or increased yields. The Mediterranean North zone shows the highest yield increases (36% under SSP5-8.5 in the 2080s).
• Four distinct clusters of hazard combinations are identified, showing spatial shifts under future climates, indicating that regions with similar hazard profiles will change, with northern zones experiencing hazards currently more typical of central or southern Europe.
• Yield instability (high interannual variability) remains "virtually certain" in Mediterranean South and Mediterranean North zones under baseline and future conditions.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, Europe-wide assessment of climate change impacts on spring barley, integrating the latest CMIP6 climate scenarios with crop model-based yield projections and agro-climatic indicators.
• Offers crucial information for adaptation planning by characterizing regional-specific climate hazards and their projected shifts, supporting the design of climate-resilient barley ideotypes.
• Demonstrates the significant role of CO2 fertilization in potentially offsetting climate-induced yield losses, while also highlighting the limitations of current crop models in fully capturing complex and compounding extreme weather impacts.
• Identifies evolving "target environment types" across Europe, which can guide breeders in developing cultivars with specific traits for future climatic conditions.

Funding

• Project BARISTA, carried out under the ERA-NET Cofund SusCrop (Grant number: N°771134), part of the Joint Programming Initiative on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change (FACCE-JPI).
• Follow-up project BRACE (Grant number: N°459539744).

Citation

@article{Köster2026Projected,
  author = {Köster, M. and Appiah, M. and Hoffmann, MP and Abdulai, I. and Schulman, A.H. and Maurer, A. and Pillen, K. and Trnka, M. and Semenov, M.A. and Rötter, R.P.},
  title = {Projected shifts in climate and spring barley yields under future (CMIP6) scenarios across eight environmental zones in Europe},
  journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111024},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111024}
}