Mamgain et al. (2026) A satellite-based forest fire weather index for characterizing fire danger variability in the Himalaya

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-11
• Authors: Shailja Mamgain, Arijit Roy, Harish Chandra Karnatak
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111169

Research Groups

Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, Indian Space Research Organisation, Dehradun, India

Short Summary

This study develops a satellite-based Forest Fire Weather Index (FFWI) for the data-scarce Himalayan region, integrating five satellite-derived indicators to provide spatially explicit fire danger assessments, demonstrating strong spatiotemporal variability and a robust link to large-scale climate phenomena.

Objective

• To develop a satellite-based Forest Fire Weather Index (FFWI) specifically designed for the Himalayan region, independent of ground-based weather observations, to characterize fire danger variability and support proactive fire management.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Himalayan region.
• Temporal Scale: Daily assessments; long-term analysis over a 25-year period (2000–2024).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Satellite-based Forest Fire Weather Index (FFWI), a rule-based additive framework integrating five physically interpretable indicators.
• Data sources: Satellite-derived daily surface reflectance and land surface temperature products (e.g., MODIS), satellite-detected active fires for validation.

Main Results

• The developed FFWI reveals strong spatial and temporal variability in fire danger across the Himalayan region.
• High-risk fire zones show progressive intensification and upslope expansion from foothills into higher-elevation montane regions.
• Multi-metric validation using satellite-detected active fires demonstrated an 88.36 % hit-rate accuracy for observed fire occurrences within higher FFWI danger classes during selected fire seasons.
• Long-term analysis (2000–2024) indicates statistically significant trends and pronounced interannual anomalies in fire danger.
• Elevated fire danger is strongly associated with El Niño years, while reduced risk correlates with La Niña phases, a relationship robust even after controlling for precipitation, temperature, and vegetation anomalies.

Contributions

• Development of a novel satellite-based Forest Fire Weather Index (FFWI) tailored for data-scarce mountainous environments like the Himalaya, overcoming limitations of ground-based systems.
• Provides spatially explicit, near real-time fire danger assessments crucial for proactive fire management in the region.
• Establishes a robust link between Himalayan fire danger variability and large-scale climate phenomena (El Niño/La Niña), enhancing understanding of climatic sensitivity.
• Offers an operational Google Earth Engine-based application for near-real-time visualization, serving as a practical decision-support tool.

Funding

[Not specified in the paper.]

Citation

@article{Mamgain2026satellitebased,
  author = {Mamgain, Shailja and Roy, Arijit and Karnatak, Harish Chandra},
  title = {A satellite-based forest fire weather index for characterizing fire danger variability in the Himalaya},
  journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111169},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111169}
}