Chen et al. (2026) Reduced exposure diminishes compound extreme climate risk for rice, yet yield losses intensify across Southeast Asia

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-13
• Authors: D Chen, Fei Cheng, Zhao Zhang, Jialu Xu, Matthew Tom Harrison, Huimin Zhuang, Jichong Han, Huaqing Wu, S J Yang, Qinghang Mei, Corey Lesk, Fulu Tao
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111353

Research Groups

• Joint International Research Laboratory of Catastrophe Simulation and Systemic Risk Governance, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai, China
• Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Zhengzhou, China
• School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
• Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
• College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
• Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmania, Launceston, Australia
• State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
• Department of Geography, Neukom Institute, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA

Short Summary

This study develops a novel framework to evaluate rice risks to compound extreme climate events (CEs) across Southeast Asia during 1991–2021. The results show that reduced exposure accounted for 117% and 129% of the risk reduction in major- and secondary-season rice, respectively.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of compound extreme climate events on rice production in Southeast Asia

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: High-resolution (0.05°) across Southeast Asia
• Temporal Scale: 1991–2021

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Nested copula functions for vulnerability modeling
• Data sources: Satellite, observation, and reanalysis data

Main Results

• Reduced exposure accounted for 117% and 129% of the risk reduction in major- and secondary-season rice, respectively
• Compound extreme climate events (CEs) aggravated yield losses (0.2–41%) and production losses (0.2–26%)
• The most extreme CEs amplified yield losses by 2.7–3.3 times of the baseline ones

Contributions

• Developed a novel framework to systematically evaluate rice risks to compound extreme climate events
• Provided actionable evidence for crafting targeted, climate-resilient strategies in global breadbaskets

Funding

• This research was funded by [project/program name and reference code]

Citation

@article{Chen2026Reduced,
  author = {Chen, D and Cheng, Fei and Zhang, Zhao and Xu, Jialu and Harrison, Matthew Tom and Zhuang, Huimin and Han, Jichong and Wu, Huaqing and Yang, S J and Mei, Qinghang and Lesk, Corey and Tao, Fulu},
  title = {Reduced exposure diminishes compound extreme climate risk for rice, yet yield losses intensify across Southeast Asia},
  journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111353},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111353}
}