Zheng et al. (2026) Underestimated climate contributions: Dynamic attribution of vegetation changes in China incorporating soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-04
• Authors: Hui Zheng, Yuhang Huang, Rong Li, Xiaoshan Yin, Bolin Fu, Junling Jin
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111395

Research Groups

• Guangxi Key Laboratory of Environmental Processes and Remediation in Ecologically Fragile Regions
• University Engineering Research Center of Green Remediation and Low Carbon Development for Lijiang River Basin
• College of Environment and Resources, Guangxi Normal University
• College of Geomatics and Geoinformation, Guilin University of Technology

Short Summary

This study reassesses the contributions of climate change and human activities on vegetation dynamics in China by integrating vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and soil moisture (SM) into an attribution framework. The results show that incorporating VPD and SM significantly refines climate attribution, increasing climate-dominated areas from 21% to 53%.

Objective

• Investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation leaf area index (LAI) in China and reassess the contributions of climate change and human activities by integrating VPD and SM into an attribution framework.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: National scale, with a focus on China.
• Temporal Scale: 1982–2020.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: GIMMS LAI4g data was utilized for the analysis.
• Data sources: Satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) data from GIMMS.

Main Results

• The study found that China's LAI increased consistently with a breakpoint around 2003, after which growth markedly accelerated, with a distinct north-early, south-late spatial pattern.
• Incorporating VPD and SM significantly refined climate attribution, increasing climate-dominated areas from 21% to 53%.
• Path analysis revealed energy-driven controls (temperature, VPD) in humid regions and moisture constraints (precipitation, SM) in arid zones.

Contributions

• This study addresses the systemic underestimation of climate impacts by integrating VPD and SM into a water-stress attribution framework.
• The results provide a robust methodology for assessing the coupled effects of environmental and anthropogenic factors on terrestrial ecosystems.

Funding

• This research was funded by [project/program name] (reference code).

Citation

@article{Zheng2026Underestimated,
  author = {Zheng, Hui and Huang, Yuhang and Li, Rong and Yin, Xiaoshan and Fu, Bolin and Jin, Junling},
  title = {Underestimated climate contributions: Dynamic attribution of vegetation changes in China incorporating soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit},
  journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111395},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111395}
}