Wang et al. (2026) Soil water depletion intensifies ecosystem vulnerability in China’s drylands

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-13
• Authors: Hongzhou Wang, Fangyue Zhang, Zhaofei Wu, Zunchi Liu, Guizeng Qi, Jing Zhang, Rongqi Tang, Yongshuo H. Fu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111412

Research Groups

• College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University
• State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Beijing Normal University
• Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
• Yanchi Research Station, School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University
• Department of Biology, University of Antwerp

Short Summary

This study develops a multidimensional framework to evaluate ecosystem vulnerability in China's drylands, integrating pressure, sensitivity, and resilience components. The research reveals that soil moisture depletion is the primary driver of increased ecosystem vulnerability.

Objective

• Investigate the long-term vulnerability trajectories and potential nonlinear responses of China's drylands under climate change and human pressures.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: National scale in China, focusing on dryland regions.
• Temporal Scale: 1982 to 2020.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Machine learning models combined with early-warning indicators from critical slowing-down theory.
• Data sources: Observations and reanalysis data.

Main Results

• Ecosystem vulnerability in China's drylands has increased, with significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity concentrated in the Loess Plateau and Temperate Grassland.
• Soil moisture depletion is the dominant contributor to vulnerability trends.
• Soil moisture thresholds (23.73 to 37.19 mm) were identified across overall vulnerability and its components, beyond which small declines in water availability trigger marked nonlinear shifts.

Contributions

• This study advances our understanding of dryland degradation mechanisms and provides a basis for early warning and adaptive management.
• The research highlights the importance of monitoring soil moisture to predict ecosystem state shifts in high-risk dryland regions.

Funding

• This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42122003) and the Swiss National Science Foundation (Grant No. PZ00P3_194528).

Citation

@article{Wang2026Soil,
  author = {Wang, Hongzhou and Zhang, Fangyue and Wu, Zhaofei and Liu, Zunchi and Qi, Guizeng and Zhang, Jing and Tang, Rongqi and Fu, Yongshuo H.},
  title = {Soil water depletion intensifies ecosystem vulnerability in China’s drylands},
  journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111412},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111412}
}