Wu et al. (2026) Spatio-temporal variations in the sensitivity of forests to seasonal precipitation across Europe

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-17
• Authors: Yong Wu, Meizhen Wang, Wei Zhao, Xuejun Liu, Jiechen Wu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111425

Research Groups

• Fujian Provincial Engineering Research Center for Forest Carbon Metering, Fujian Normal University, China
• Institute of Geography, Fujian Normal University, China
• Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment (Nanjing Normal University), Ministry of Education, China
• State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution (Jiangsu Province), China
• Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, China

Short Summary

This study utilizes long-term satellite data and machine learning to analyze the sensitivity of European forests to seasonal precipitation over two decades, finding that warming and increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD) amplify these sensitivities, particularly during summer and in low-elevation, warm-dry regions.

Objective

• To examine the spatio-temporal variations in the sensitivity of European forest greenness and photosynthetic activity to seasonal precipitation and characterize the regional heterogeneity associated with topoclimate, biogeography, and forest types.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Europe
• Temporal Scale: Two decades

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Machine learning approach
• Data sources: Long-term satellite observations

Main Results

• Seasonal Hierarchy: European forests exhibit the highest sensitivity to summer precipitation, followed by spring, with lower sensitivities to autumn and winter.
• Temporal Trends:
  • Sensitivity to spring precipitation declined over time at low elevations.
  • Sensitivity to summer and winter precipitation generally increased.
  • Autumn sensitivity trends remained variable.
• Environmental Drivers: Sensitivity trends are closely associated with temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) anomalies; extremes in sensitivity occur during periods of high temperature and atmospheric water demand.
• Regional Heterogeneity:
  • Changes in spring and summer sensitivity are attenuated at high elevations compared to low elevations.
  • Temporal changes are more pronounced in warm-dry regions than in cool-wet or high-elevation regions.
  • The influence of spring and summer precipitation is amplified under conditions of higher temperatures and VPD, especially in low-elevation areas.

Contributions

• The study provides a comprehensive analysis of how the relationship between seasonal precipitation and forest productivity is evolving under climate change, highlighting the critical role of temperature and VPD in modulating water-use sensitivity, which is essential for predicting future terrestrial carbon sinks and planning forest adaptation.

Funding

• Not provided in the text.

Citation

@article{Wu2026Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Wu, Yong and Wang, Meizhen and Zhao, Wei and Liu, Xuejun and Wu, Jiechen},
  title = {Spatio-temporal variations in the sensitivity of forests to seasonal precipitation across Europe},
  journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111425},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111425}
}