Xiao et al. (2026) Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling intensifies wildfires in Siberia in 2021

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-26
• Authors: Xiao Xiao, Qinglong You, Ziyi Cai, Hans W. Chen, Zheng Jin, Zhiyan Zuo, Liang Qiao, Deliang Chen, Shichang Kang, Jian Peng, А. V. Chernokulsky, Renhe Zhang
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111437

Research Groups

• Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences & Key Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice System for Weather and Climate, Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
• Chalmers University of Technology, Department of Environmental and Energy Sciences, Gothenburg, Sweden
• College of Geography and Planning, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, China
• Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
• Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
• Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China
• Department of Remote Sensing, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
• Institute for Earth System Science and Remote Sensing, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
• A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
• Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

Short Summary

This study investigates the role of soil moisture-atmosphere coupling in intensifying wildfires in Siberia during 2021, revealing a strong climate sensitivity of fire activity under anthropogenic climate change.

Objective

• Investigate the influence of soil moisture (SM)–atmosphere coupling on wildfire intensity in Siberia during 2021

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale, focusing on Siberian hotspot region
• Temporal Scale: Summer 2021, with comparisons to 2004–2024 average

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Flow analogue method
• Data sources: Multisource datasets, including satellite and observation data

Main Results

• Fire radiative power in the Siberian hotspot region during 2021 was nearly 9 times the 2004–2024 average (excluding 2021)
• Wildfire intensity scales exponentially with temperature, vapor pressure deficit, precipitation, SM, and climatic water deficit
• Negative SM anomalies explained more than 60% of extreme daily temperatures during peak fire days

Contributions

• This study highlights the pivotal role of SM–atmosphere coupling in wildfire dynamics and its growing importance for understanding risks to high-latitude ecosystems under climate change

Funding

• Not specified

Citation

@article{Xiao2026Soil,
  author = {Xiao, Xiao and You, Qinglong and Cai, Ziyi and Chen, Hans W. and Jin, Zheng and Zuo, Zhiyan and Qiao, Liang and Chen, Deliang and Kang, Shichang and Peng, Jian and Chernokulsky, А. V. and Zhang, Renhe},
  title = {Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling intensifies wildfires in Siberia in 2021},
  journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111437},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111437}
}