Jiang et al. (2026) Spatio-temporal evolution of late spring frost and associated yield reduction risk for winter wheat in China

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-21
• Authors: Kunhao Jiang, Min Su, Fangfang Liu, Xiaoqi Kang, Xinyi Fan, Bin Chen, Yingnan Wei, Linchao Li, Qiang Yu, Gang Zhao, Genghong Wu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111487

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Desertification Control, College of Soil and Water Conservation Science and Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, China
• Institute of Hefei Artificial Intelligence Breeding Accelerator Co. Ltd, Hefei, Anhui, China
• Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling, Shaanxi, China
• Crop Research Institute, Anhui Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hefei, China
• College of Agronomy, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China

Short Summary

This study developed a phenology-constrained framework to quantify the spatio-temporal evolution of late spring frost risk and associated yield reduction for winter wheat in China. It found that climate warming reshapes rather than removes late spring frost risk by altering phenology-climate overlap, shifting risk hotspots and increasing future losses for cold-sensitive cultivars, while cold-tolerant cultivars can significantly mitigate these losses.

Objective

• To quantify the spatio-temporal evolution of late spring frost and associated yield reduction risk for winter wheat in China, considering dynamic phenological shifts and cultivar resistance under historical (1980–2024) and future (2030–2100) climate change scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Major winter wheat regions across China.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1980–2024) and future projections (2030–2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: A phenology-constrained, event-based framework integrating:
  • Controlled low-temperature experiments.
  • Phenology reconstruction constrained by agrometeorological observations.
  • Machine-learning-based yield-reduction modelling.
  • Bias-corrected hourly temperature projections.
• Data sources:
  • Controlled low-temperature experimental data.
  • Agrometeorological observations for phenology reconstruction.
  • Bias-corrected hourly temperature projections from SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 climate change scenarios.

Main Results

• Warming did not uniformly reduce frost damage but shifted its geographic center.
• For cold-sensitive cultivars, the historical mean yield reduction was greatest in the Middle–Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River region (10.02%).
• The Huang–Huai region is projected to become the principal future hotspot for cold-sensitive cultivars, with yield reductions reaching 6.49% under SSP5–8.5.
• This redistribution of risk was primarily driven by phenological advancement and changes in the frequency and persistence of cold exposure during sensitive stages, with comparatively small changes in minimum temperature.
• Counterfactual simulations showed that dynamic phenological shifts increased future losses, mainly during the jointing stage, which dominated losses across both historical and future periods.
• Cold-tolerant cultivars were found to reduce losses by approximately half in the most vulnerable regions.

Contributions

• Developed a novel, comprehensive phenology-constrained, event-based framework to assess large-scale late spring frost risk and yield reduction for winter wheat.
• Provided a quantitative assessment of the spatio-temporal evolution of late spring frost risk under historical and future climate change scenarios, explicitly accounting for dynamic phenology and cultivar resistance.
• Revealed that climate warming reshapes rather than removes late spring frost risk by altering phenology-climate overlap, leading to shifts in risk hotspots.
• Highlighted the "warming–risk paradox" and underscored the critical need for phenology-aware monitoring and region-specific deployment of cold-tolerant cultivars for effective adaptation strategies.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Jiang2026Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Jiang, Kunhao and Su, Min and Liu, Fangfang and Kang, Xiaoqi and Fan, Xinyi and Chen, Bin and Wei, Yingnan and Li, Linchao and Yu, Qiang and Zhao, Gang and Wu, Genghong},
  title = {Spatio-temporal evolution of late spring frost and associated yield reduction risk for winter wheat in China},
  journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111487},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111487}
}