Shu et al. (2026) Reservoir regulation alters meteorological–hydrological drought propagation in the Lancang–Mekong River Basin

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-18
• Authors: Fan Shu, Wenbing Zhu, Yan Han, Aifeng Lv
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110549

Research Groups

• Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
• University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Short Summary

This study investigates how cascade reservoir regulation alters the propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin. The results reveal that reservoir regulation spatially reconfigures hydrological drought risk, with significant drought attenuation downstream and intensification upstream.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of cascade reservoir regulation on drought propagation dynamics in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin.
• Quantify changes in nonlinear propagation times before and after reservoir construction.
• Determine dynamic trigger thresholds for hydrological drought under varying severities.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focuses on the Lancang-Mekong River Basin, a transboundary river system in Southeast Asia.
• Temporal Scale: The analysis covers a period of 56 years (1960–2016).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM), Copula-Bayesian framework, and dominance analysis.
• Data sources: Meteorological data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) dataset, runoff data from six main hydrological stations along the mainstem of LMRB, and reservoir construction data.

Main Results

• Reservoir regulation spatially reconfigures hydrological drought risk, with significant drought attenuation downstream and intensification upstream.
• The time required for meteorological drought to propagate into hydrological drought lengthened basin-wide.
• Dynamic thresholds for hydrological drought were determined using the Copula-Bayesian framework and ROC curve analysis.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive understanding of how cascade reservoir regulation affects drought propagation dynamics in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin.
• The results have significant implications for transboundary water management and early warning system development in the region.

Funding

• This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 91837204) and the Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA23020300).

Citation

@article{Shu2026Reservoir,
  author = {Shu, Fan and Zhu, Wenbing and Han, Yan and Lv, Aifeng},
  title = {Reservoir regulation alters meteorological–hydrological drought propagation in the Lancang–Mekong River Basin},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110549},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110549}
}