González-López et al. (2026) Assessing structural uncertainty in water–human systems: A multi-model ensemble approach for agricultural water management

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-29
• Authors: Héctor González-López, Arthur Hrast Essenfelder, Francesco Sapino, David Andrés Rivas-Tabares, Jose María Bodoque, C. Dionisio Pérez‐Blanco
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110582

Research Groups

• IMDEA Water Institute
• University of Alcalá (UAH)
• European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
• Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Biochemistry, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha
• Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change

Short Summary

This study assesses structural uncertainty in water–human systems by assembling a cross-system ensemble of widely used human and water system models representing diverse behavioral paradigms and hydrological complexities. The framework couples alternative hydrological models (Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) and Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)) with a set of microeconomic models (two Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) models, and two multi-attribute models: one Positive Multi-Attribute Utility Programming (PMAUP) model and one Weighted Goals Programming (WGP) model) via a protocolized coupling.

Objective

• Assess the propagation of structural uncertainty across coupled human-water systems.
• Evaluate the impact of alternative hydrological-model structures on hydro-economic trajectories.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Catchment scale, specifically the Tormes Catchment in Spain’s Douro basin.
• Temporal Scale: Daily to seasonal time steps, depending on the module and scenario.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS)
  • Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
  • Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) models
  • Positive Multi-Attribute Utility Programming (PMAUP) model
  • Weighted Goals Programming (WGP) model
• Data sources:
  • Satellite and observation data for hydrological calibration and validation.
  • Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) for climate forcing.

Main Results

• Model structural uncertainty cascades through the ensemble and concentrates around irrigation onset, producing storage spreads of approximately 150–202 million m³ across coupled configurations.
• Hydrological model choice explains most of this spread: family median differences reach 1.88–2.12 z-score units.
• Economic-model structure mainly modulates within-family variability through heterogeneous water-demand signals.

Contributions

• This study provides an operational approach to assess modeling structural uncertainty and inform policy making under uncertainty.
• The framework can be reproduced to evaluate the impact of alternative hydrological-model structures on hydro-economic trajectories.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{GonzálezLópez2026Assessing,
  author = {González-López, Héctor and Essenfelder, Arthur Hrast and Sapino, Francesco and Rivas-Tabares, David Andrés and Bodoque, Jose María and Pérez‐Blanco, C. Dionisio},
  title = {Assessing structural uncertainty in water–human systems: A multi-model ensemble approach for agricultural water management},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110582},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110582}
}