Wei et al. (2026) The interactive effect of soil and atmospheric dryness dominates vegetation vulnerability in Mainland China

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-06
• Authors: Xiaoting Wei, Shengzhi Huang, Jian Xi Peng, Qiang Huang, Guoyong Leng, Haiyun Shi, Kai Feng, Hao Cui, Xihui Gu, Hongbo Ling, Mingjiang Deng
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110610

Research Groups

• College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, China
• State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an, China
• Department of Remote Sensing, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
• Remote Sensing Centre for Earth System Research, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
• Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas, Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, China
• Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
• State Key Laboratory of Soil Pollution Control and Safety, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
• State Key Laboratory of Geomicrobiology and Environmental Changes, Hubei Key Laboratory of Regional Ecology and Environmental Change, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China
• State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China

Short Summary

This study developed a novel probabilistic framework to disentangle the individual and interactive effects of soil moisture (SM) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on vegetation. The results revealed that the interaction between VPD and SM primarily exerted an inhibitory effect on NDVI, intensified with increasing dryness severity.

Objective

• Develop a novel probabilistic decoupling framework to disentangle the individual and interactive effects of soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit on vegetation.
• Apply this framework to quantify the independent effects of soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit on NDVI and their synergistic interaction under varying drought conditions, and reveal the spatiotemporal patterns and evolutionary trends of these effects across Mainland China over the past four decades.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Mainland China (excluding permafrost regions in the northwest)
• Temporal Scale: 1982–2018

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Vine copula, Random Forest
• Data sources: ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset, China 5-km resolution monthly NDVI dataset, CRU TS v4.05 dataset, GLEAM evapotranspiration dataset, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory teleconnection data

Main Results

• The interaction between VPD and SM primarily exerted an inhibitory effect on NDVI.
• The relative contribution of this interaction to vegetation changes increased under more severe dryness conditions.
• Spatially, the strength and contribution of the interaction showed significant increasing trends predominantly in northeastern China, while decreasing trends dominated in central and southern regions.

Contributions

• This study provides a novel probabilistic framework for disentangling the individual and interactive effects of soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit on vegetation.
• The results reveal the complex interactions between VPD and SM and their impact on vegetation across Mainland China.

Funding

• This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51879211), the Key Research and Development Program of Shaanxi Province (Grant No. 2022KW-033), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 310830171005).

Citation

@article{Wei2026interactive,
  author = {Wei, Xiaoting and Huang, Shengzhi and Liu, Dong and Peng, Jian Xi and Huang, Qiang and Guo, Wenwen and Leng, Guoyong and Shi, Haiyun and Feng, Kai and Li, Yifei and Cui, Hao and Gu, Xihui and Ling, Hongbo and Deng, Mingjiang},
  title = {The interactive effect of soil and atmospheric dryness dominates vegetation vulnerability in Mainland China},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110610},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110610}
}