Soares et al. (2026) Simulating maize response to historical climate variability in a main maize-producing region of Portugal

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-08
• Authors: Daniela Soares, João Rolim, Teresa A. Paço, Paula Paredes
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110611

Research Groups

• LEAF – Linking Landscape, Environment, Agriculture and Food Research Center, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon
• Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon

Short Summary

This study evaluates the effect of climate variability on maize growth cycle, net irrigation requirements, grain yield, and irrigation water productivity in the Coruche region, Portugal. The AquaCrop-OSPy model was used to simulate three sowing scenarios: anticipated sowing (AS), traditional sowing (TS), and delayed sowing (DS).

Objective

• To quantify the effects of historical climate variability on maize length of growing cycle (LGC), net irrigation requirements (NIR), grain yield (Ya), irrigation water productivity (IWP), and economic water productivity (EWP) in the Coruche region.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale, focusing on the Coruche region in Portugal.
• Temporal Scale: Historical climate variability for the period 1971–2000 and a shorter period of field observations from 2021 to 2023.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: AquaCrop-OSPy model, which integrates four main components: soil water balance, crop development, growth, and yield; atmosphere; management; and irrigation.
• Data sources: E-OBS gridded dataset, weather station data from Coruche, and field observations.

Main Results

• The study found that climate variability impacts the dynamics of production across all sowing dates, but with no significant differences in average grain yield.
• Anticipating sowing dates can be an advantageous practice to improve maize resilience and productivity under increased water scarcity conditions.
• The results are only statistically significant under severe and extreme drought conditions.

Contributions

• This study provides a reliable historical baseline for assessing the effects of climate change on maize irrigation requirements, yield, and water productivity in the Coruche region.
• The use of AquaCrop-OSPy model and E-OBS gridded dataset allows for upscaling from field to regional scale.

Funding

• This research was funded by [projects, programs, and reference codes that funded this research].

Citation

@article{Soares2026Simulating,
  author = {Soares, Daniela and Rolim, João and Paço, Teresa A. and Paredes, Paula},
  title = {Simulating maize response to historical climate variability in a main maize-producing region of Portugal},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110611},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110611}
}