ZHANG et al. (2026) Emerging structural overshoot drought triggered by vegetation greening in the Yellow River Basin

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-08
• Authors: Y ZHANG, Yongming Cheng, Liu Liu, Qiang An, Guanhua Huang
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110613

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Agricultural Water Resources, China Agricultural University
• Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University
• College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University

Short Summary

This study investigates the emergence of structural overshoot drought triggered by vegetation greening in the Yellow River Basin. The research reveals that 15.91% of drought-affected areas experienced overshoot drought, with 79.4% concentrated in the rapidly greening middle reaches.

Objective

• Investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and irrigation management implications of structural overshoot drought in the Yellow River Basin.
• Identify the key multi-source drivers and their interactive effects on overshoot drought.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focuses on the Yellow River Basin, a major grain-producing region in China, with large-scale irrigation districts critical for regional and national food security.
• Temporal Scale: The study period spans from 1982 to 2020, allowing for an examination of long-term trends and changes in vegetation dynamics and drought patterns.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Dynamic Linear Model (DLM)
  • Random Forest (RF) model coupled with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)
• Data sources:
  • Satellite remote sensing data, including NDVI, precipitation, temperature, DLR, and soil moisture
  • Climate datasets, such as CMFD and ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset

Main Results

• The study reveals a significant warming-wetting trend across most of the basin, with 84.5% of vegetated areas showing significant increases in NDVI.
• Overshoot droughts occurred in 15.91% of the drought-affected area, accounting for 4.94% of all drought events.
• Short-timescale vegetation dynamics may play a primary role in structural overshoot droughts in the Yellow River Basin.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the mechanisms driving overshoot droughts and their impacts on vegetation dynamics in the Yellow River Basin.
• The findings highlight the importance of considering structural overshoot drought in agricultural water management and irrigation scheduling decisions.

Funding

• This research was funded by projects from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) and the Ministry of Water Resources of China.

Citation

@article{ZHANG2026Emerging,
  author = {ZHANG, Y and Cheng, Yongming and Liu, Liu and An, Qiang and Huang, Guanhua},
  title = {Emerging structural overshoot drought triggered by vegetation greening in the Yellow River Basin},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110613},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110613}
}