Wang et al. (2026) Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of soil drought from a perspective of soil moisture

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-07
• Authors: Ruirui Qi, Shengzhi Huang, Hexin Lai, Wenhan Yu, Mengting Du, Qian Xu, Rong Li, Ruyi Men, Hui Li, Kai Feng, Yanbin Li, Qingqing Tian, Shen Dongfang, H Yang
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110623

Research Groups

• School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China
• Guizhou Provincial Department of Water Resources Science, Guiyang 550002, China
• School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China

Short Summary

This study systematically reveals the spatio-temporal evolution law and multi-scale driving mechanism of soil drought in the North China Plain (NCP) using a comprehensive framework that combines grid improved Mann-Kendall trend test, cross wavelet and multivariate wavelet coherence analysis, SHAP interpretable machine learning, and other methods.

Objective

• Investigate the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of soil drought in the NCP from 1982 to 2024.
• Analyze the impact of climate change and human activities on soil moisture balance and drought formation.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (North China Plain)
• Temporal Scale: Monthly, interannual, and interdecadal scales

Methodology and Data

• Models used: FLDAS dataset, Noah 3.6.1 land surface model, MERRA−2 reanalysis data
• Data sources: Satellite observation, precipitation forcing from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Preparation with Station data high-resolution satellite station precipitation product

Main Results

• The most serious drought event occurred from July 2002 to November 2002, with September being the driest month and an average SSMI value of –1.33 in the NCP.
• Anti-persistence dominated the drought situation in most areas, implying that the current trend is likely to reverse in the future.
• Wavelet coherence analysis indicated strong coupling interactions among soil moisture, soil temperature, and air temperature, which dominate drought evolution.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the spatio-temporal evolution law and multi-scale driving mechanism of soil drought in the NCP.
• The findings can be used to support agricultural drought early warning, differentiated water resource allocation, and regional drought disaster prevention and mitigation.

Funding

• National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC)
• Computer Network Information Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Citation

@article{Wang2026Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Wang, Fei and Qi, Ruirui and Huang, Shengzhi and Lai, Hexin and Yu, Wenhan and Du, Mengting and Xu, Qian and Li, Rong and Men, Ruyi and Li, Hui and Feng, Kai and Li, Yanbin and Tian, Qingqing and Dongfang, Shen and Yang, H},
  title = {Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of soil drought from a perspective of soil moisture},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110623},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110623}
}