Islam et al. (2026) Climate-informed irrigation and nitrogen strategies for Boro rice sustainability: DSSAT-CERES modeling under CMIP6 projections

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-14
• Authors: Md Touhidul Islam, A. K. M. Adham, Md. Jouadul Hasan, Musfiqus Shalehin, Md. Azizul Hakim, Nusrat Jahan, Juli Akter, Atia Nishat, Baishakhi Biswas
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110642

Research Groups

• Department of Irrigation and Water Management, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh
• Department of Environmental Science, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh

Short Summary

This study investigates the impact of climate change on Boro rice sustainability in north-central Bangladesh by evaluating the effects of integrated irrigation and nitrogen management strategies under current and projected future climate scenarios. The research demonstrates that alternate wetting-drying (AWD) irrigation with 15 cm threshold depth can reduce seasonal water use by 35% while improving water productivity from 0.59 to 0.63-0.72-0.89 kg/m³.

Objective

• To assess the impact of climate change on Boro rice yield, biomass, and water productivity under integrated irrigation-nitrogen management strategies.
• To evaluate the effectiveness of alternate wetting-drying (AWD) irrigation with 15 cm threshold depth in reducing water consumption while maintaining or improving crop yields.
• To identify optimal management strategies for sustaining productivity and resource use efficiency under future climate scenarios.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Field experiments were conducted at the Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, north-central Bangladesh.
• Temporal Scale: The study spanned two consecutive Boro rice seasons (2024 and 2025) with a focus on near-term (2026-2050), mid-term (2051-2075), and far-term (2076-2100) climate scenarios.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: DSSAT-CERES-Rice model was employed to simulate Boro rice growth, development, and yield responses under varying irrigation and nitrogen management practices.
• Data sources: Field experimental data from the 2024 growing season were used for calibration, while independent field data from the 2025 growing season were used for validation.

Main Results

• The AWD strategy reduced seasonal water use by 35% while improving water productivity from 0.59 to 0.63-0.72-0.89 kg/m³.
• The optimized AIN2 treatment (AI with 25% nitrogen reduction) achieved 6.13 ± 0.34 t/ha, representing 89-93% of maximum yield under CIN1 while consuming 35% less water and 25% less nitrogen.

Contributions

• This study provides evidence-based insights for developing climate-resilient rice production systems and informing adaptation policy in Bangladesh and comparable rice-growing regions globally.
• The findings highlight the importance of integrated irrigation-nitrogen management strategies in sustaining productivity and resource use efficiency under future climate scenarios.

Funding

• This research was funded by [project/program name and reference code].

Citation

@article{Islam2026Climateinformed,
  author = {Islam, Md Touhidul and Adham, A. K. M. and Hasan, Md. Jouadul and Shalehin, Musfiqus and Hakim, Md. Azizul and Jahan, Nusrat and Akter, Juli and Nishat, Atia and Biswas, Baishakhi},
  title = {Climate-informed irrigation and nitrogen strategies for Boro rice sustainability: DSSAT-CERES modeling under CMIP6 projections},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110642},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110642}
}