He et al. (2026) Can distant water resolve local scarcity? Interregional water transfers and the risk resistance of grain production—evidence from China's South-to-North Water Diversion Project

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-15
• Authors: Qiang He, Mao Zhao, Fangxia Kong
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110646

Research Groups

• School of Management, Yunnan Normal University
• Faculty of Management and Economics, Kunming University of Science and Technology

Short Summary

This study examines the effects of China's South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) on the risk resistance of grain production (RRGP) in recipient and water-supplying regions. The results show that the SNWDP increased RRGP in recipient areas by 11.2%.

Objective

• Investigate whether interregional water transfer reduces the sensitivity of grain production to drought shocks.
• Identify asymmetric effects on RRGP in recipient and water-supplying regions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: County-level analysis in China's provinces.
• Temporal Scale: 2000-2020, with a focus on the first phase of the Eastern Route and Middle Route of the SNWDP.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Difference-in-differences (DID) model to examine the effects of the SNWDP on RRGP.
• Data sources: County-level socioeconomic data from EPS Data Platform, climate characteristic data from ERA5-Land dataset, and geographic data from ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003.

Main Results

• The SNWDP increased RRGP in recipient areas by 11.2%.
• Channel analysis indicates that improvements in agricultural mechanization, market entity development, grain cropping structure, and drought resistance capacity contributed to the increase in RRGP.
• Heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive effect of the SNWDP on RRGP is more pronounced in major grain-producing counties, flat terrain areas, and regions close to main diversion routes.

Contributions

• This study provides new empirical evidence and identification strategies for understanding the agricultural consequences of interregional water reallocation under climate adaptation scenarios.
• The construction of an index that captures RRGP under drought shocks contributes to the literature on risk management in agriculture.

Funding

• No specific funding information is provided.

Citation

@article{He2026Can,
  author = {He, Qiang and Zhao, Mao and Kong, Fangxia},
  title = {Can distant water resolve local scarcity? Interregional water transfers and the risk resistance of grain production—evidence from China's South-to-North Water Diversion Project},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110646},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110646}
}