Ramaswamy et al. (2026) Opportunities for bioenergy crops to support transitions from irrigated agriculture and conserve the U.S. High Plains Aquifer

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-05
• Authors: Karthik Ramaswamy, Nazli Uludere Aragon, Tyler J. Lark
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110675

Research Groups

• Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison
• DOE Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison
• The Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, University of Montana
• Department of Plant, Soil, and Microbial Sciences, Michigan State University

Short Summary

This study investigates potential economic and groundwater-driven transitions from irrigated maize production to alternative crops such as sorghum and switchgrass in the U.S. High Plains Aquifer region. The results indicate significant regional variability in the future economic viability of irrigated agriculture, driven by differences in aquifer recharge rates, groundwater availability, and market conditions.

Objective

• Evaluate the long-term economic viability of transitioning from irrigated maize to alternative crops under local groundwater constraints.
• Assess the potential for biomass sorghum and switchgrass to replace currently irrigated maize areas in the HPA region.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: County-level analysis across 180 counties in the U.S. High Plains Aquifer region.
• Temporal Scale: 30-year planning period, with a focus on long-term economic viability and groundwater availability.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Spatially explicit optimization framework combined with comprehensive economic and hydrogeological data.
• Data sources: County-level crop yield data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), groundwater characteristics from USGS datasets, and market prices from the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service.

Main Results

• Approximately 23% of currently irrigated maize area across the HPA region may transition to dryland farming under business-as-usual conditions.
• Non-irrigated sorghum production is expected to increase by a factor of three over the 30-year horizon, from 0.20 to 0.77 Mt yr−1.
• Switchgrass production shows potential for significant adoption in Colorado and New Mexico as an alternative biomass-based energy crop.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive analysis of groundwater-driven transitions from irrigated maize to alternative crops in the HPA region.
• The results highlight the importance of considering local groundwater constraints when evaluating the economic viability of different cropping systems.

Funding

• This research was funded by the DOE Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center and the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Citation

@article{Ramaswamy2026Opportunities,
  author = {Ramaswamy, Karthik and Aragon, Nazli Uludere and Lark, Tyler J.},
  title = {Opportunities for bioenergy crops to support transitions from irrigated agriculture and conserve the U.S. High Plains Aquifer},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110675},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110675}
}