Yeşilköy et al. (2026) Projected changes in water demand and potential water savings for US grown rice under alternate wetting and drying practice

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-08
• Authors: Serhan Yeşilköy, David H. Fleisher, Sahila Beegum, Dennis Timlin
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110683

Research Groups

• USDA-ARS, Adaptive Cropping Systems Laboratory
• Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education
• Nebraska Water Center at the Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Nebraska

Short Summary

This study evaluates the water-use implications of alternate wetting and drying (AWD) irrigation compared with conventional continuous flooding in US rice production. The results show that AWD has the potential to reduce water use while sustaining high yields.

Objective

• Quantify the projected changes in water demand for rice production under AWD management.
• Evaluate the influence of AWD on irrigation demand and water savings across major US rice-growing regions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: County-level simulations were conducted to account for spatial variability in the national-scale simulations.
• Temporal Scale: Historical (1985–2014) and projected (2041–2070 and 2071–2100) weather years were used for RICESIM simulations.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: The modified ORYZA model, known as RICESIM, was used to simulate rice growth and water balance under AWD management.
• Data sources: Projected weather data from 23 earth system models (ESMs) with bias-corrected NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Global Daily Downscaled Projections (GDDP) dataset.

Main Results

• The results showed that AWD reduced irrigation demand by an average of 142.2 ± 18.2 mm in the Mississippi Delta and Gulf Coast regions.
• Projected changes in daily Tmin and Tmax were 2.4 ± 0.2◦C and 2.6 ± 0.3◦C in 2041–2070, and 4.8 ± 0.5◦C and 5.0 ± 0.5◦C in 2071–2100.
• Growing season length was projected to decrease by 8.0 ± 3.4 and 9.7 ± 5.6 days during the two time periods under SSP3–7.0 and 5–8.5 scenarios, respectively.

Contributions

• This study provides new insight into blue-water use in US rice production and highlights the importance of utilizing data-driven methodologies to identify irrigation management strategies for maximizing productivity and resilience.
• The results demonstrate that AWD has the potential to reduce water use while sustaining high yields, making it an attractive option for sustainable rice production.

Funding

• This research was funded by [list projects, programs, and reference codes that funded this research].

Citation

@article{Yeşilköy2026Projected,
  author = {Yeşilköy, Serhan and Fleisher, David H. and Beegum, Sahila and Timlin, Dennis},
  title = {Projected changes in water demand and potential water savings for US grown rice under alternate wetting and drying practice},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110683},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110683}
}