Cai et al. (2026) Optimizing irrigation strategies for wheat–maize rotation in the North China Plain under future climate Scenarios: Balancing water use, yield, and carbon intensity

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-17
• Authors: Mengyu Cai, Honghang Zhang, Yutong Xiao, Mengdi Ji, Yabei Zhang, Yiwen Lin, Yuexian Tang, Taisheng Du, Manoj Shukla, Shichao Chen
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110699

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Agricultural Water Resources, Beijing 100083, China
• National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station on Efficient Water Use of Oasis Agriculture, Wuwei 733009, China
• Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
• Crop and Soil Science Department, College of Agricultural Sciences, Oregon State University, Oregon 97331, USA

Short Summary

This study employed the APSIM model to simulate crop yields, water consumption (ET), and global warming potential (GWP) of a wheat–maize rotation system in the North China Plain from 1980 to 2060 under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2–4.5 (SSP245) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5–8.5 (SSP585) scenarios, identifying optimal irrigation strategies that balance crop yields, water use, and carbon emissions.

Objective

• Investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of key production variables for wheat and maize in the North China Plain under future climate scenarios.
• Identify optimal irrigation strategies that enable coordinated optimization of crop yields, water use, and carbon emissions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study area is defined by provincial administrative boundaries, including Beijing, Tianjin, and provinces of Hebei, Henan, and Shandong in the North China Plain (NCP).
• Temporal Scale: The study period spans from 1980 to 2060.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) version 7.10.
• Data sources:
  • Climate data: China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (Yang et al., 2018) for historical climate, and Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) repository for future climate projections.
  • Soil data: Soil database of China for Land Surface Modeling and the China Dataset of Soil Hydraulic Parameters derived using Pedotransfer Functions for Land Surface Modeling.
  • Crop varieties and management practices: Parameterized and regionally calibrated based on experimental observations.

Main Results

• Wheat yields are projected to increase substantially under future climate scenarios, with greater gains under SSP585 than SSP245.
• Maize yield exhibits a more stable temporal trend, with slight declines under SSP585 compared to the baseline period.
• W3 consistently emerged as the optimal irrigation strategy for both wheat and maize under future climate scenarios.

Contributions

• This study provides process-based evidence to inform climate-adaptive irrigation management and promote sustainable agricultural development in the NCP.
• The findings highlight the importance of identifying optimal irrigation strategies that balance crop yields, water use, and carbon emissions under future climate scenarios.

Funding

• Not specified.

Citation

@article{Cai2026Optimizing,
  author = {Cai, Mengyu and Zhang, Honghang and Xiao, Yutong and Ji, Mengdi and Zhang, Yabei and Lin, Yiwen and Tang, Yuexian and Du, Taisheng and Shukla, Manoj and Chen, Shichao},
  title = {Optimizing irrigation strategies for wheat–maize rotation in the North China Plain under future climate Scenarios: Balancing water use, yield, and carbon intensity},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110699},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110699}
}