DAI et al. (2026) Drought-flood abrupt alternation in the Haihe Plain: Synoptic circulation patterns and yield impacts on summer maize

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-20
• Authors: Siyuan DAI, Qi Zhang, Jinchen Wang, Qian Yang, Rangjian Qiu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110706

Research Groups

• Jiangsu Provincial University Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Ecological Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
• Liaoning Ecological Meteorology and Satellite Remote Sensing Center
• Hebei Meteorological Service Centre
• State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University

Short Summary

This study investigates the characteristics and impacts of drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) events on summer maize yield in the Haihe Plain. The results show that DFAA events occur frequently during the summer maize growing season, with a significant increase in frequency and duration over the past decade.

Objective

• Investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of daily-scale DFAA events in the Haihe Plain during the summer maize growing season.
• Quantify summer maize yield reductions associated with differing intensities of DFAA events.
• Explore the typical atmospheric circulation patterns that drive DFAA in the Haihe Plain.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study area is located in the Haihe Plain, China, covering an area of approximately 25,000 km².
• Temporal Scale: The study period spans from 1990 to 2024, with daily-scale data used for analysis.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ERA5 reanalysis dataset was used for atmospheric variables, while the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) was used to quantify drought events.
• Data sources: Daily precipitation data from 164 meteorological stations were collected, along with daily soil moisture data from ERA5.

Main Results

• A total of 651 DFAA events were identified during the summer maize growing season over the study period.
• The frequency and duration of DFAA events increased significantly over the past decade, with a mean rate of 0.04 events per station per decade and an average increase of 2.2 days per decade in event duration.
• SD-SF events occurred most frequently during Stage II (mean: 3.07 events per station), followed by Stage I (mean: 0.78 events per station).
• The yield loss from DFAA events varied depending on the growth stage and intensity class, with a maximum yield reduction of 12.4% for SD-SF events occurring during Stage II.

Contributions

• This study provides valuable insights into the impacts of DFAA events on summer maize yield in the Haihe Plain.
• The results highlight the importance of considering both drought and flood intensities when assessing the effects of DFAA events on crop yields.
• The study's findings can inform agricultural risk management strategies and improve forecasting capabilities for DFAA events.

Funding

• This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 52109221) and the Jiangsu Provincial University Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Ecological Meteorology (Grant No. JSUEM2021001).

Citation

@article{DAI2026Droughtflood,
  author = {DAI, Siyuan and Zhang, Qi and Wang, Jinchen and Yang, Qian and Qiu, Rangjian},
  title = {Drought-flood abrupt alternation in the Haihe Plain: Synoptic circulation patterns and yield impacts on summer maize},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110706},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110706}
}