Guo et al. (2026) Global crop production responses to climate-driven drought under future warming

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-26
• Authors: Qinghua Guo, Wenliang Wu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110709

Research Groups

• Beijing Key Laboratory of Biodiversity and Organic Farming, College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193, China

Short Summary

This study systematically analyzed the propagation mechanisms from meteorological to agricultural drought, quantified the nonlinear impacts of synergistic temperature and precipitation changes on the yields of 16 major global crops, and evaluated the adaptation potential of adjusting irrigated and rainfed areas and crop diversity under future climate change scenarios.

Objective

• Investigate the interplay between climate change-induced drought, crop production, and food production.
• Quantify the nonlinear impacts of synergistic temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields.
• Evaluate the adaptation potential of adjusting irrigated and rainfed areas and crop diversity under future climate change scenarios.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global scale with a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km).
• Temporal Scale: Analysis was conducted for four time periods: 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: XGBoost machine learning models.
• Data sources: WorldClim version 2.1, ISRIC World Soil Information, Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM) 2020 V1.0, SPEIbase v.2.9 dataset.

Main Results

• The study found that moderate warming accompanied by sufficient or increased precipitation exhibits significant positive synergistic effects on multiple crops.
• Under higher warming scenarios, this synergy generally shifts to negative, substantially exacerbating production losses.
• The total production of staple crops such as maize and wheat are projected to decrease under high emission scenarios (SSP370 and SSP585).
• Economic crops such as oilpalm and cassava show increasing trends in global production under SSP585.

Contributions

• This study provides a robust scientific basis and practical guidance for optimizing agricultural water allocation and adaptive management of irrigated and rainfed systems to mitigate climate risks.
• The findings highlight the importance of considering crop diversity in adaptation strategies to climate change.

Funding

• Not specified.

Citation

@article{Guo2026Global,
  author = {Guo, Qinghua and Wu, Wenliang},
  title = {Global crop production responses to climate-driven drought under future warming},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110709},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110709}
}