Safi et al. (2026) The world is being fed at the expense of nature: A remote sensing based global assessment from 2000 to 2019

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-27
• Authors: Abdur Rahim Safi, Poolad Karimi, Charlotte de Fraiture
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110711

Research Groups

• Wageningen University & Research
• IHE Delft Institute for Water Education

Short Summary

This study assesses global agricultural productivity trends from 2000 to 2019 using remote sensing data, comparing them with the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture (CAWMA) optimal scenario projections. The findings show that the world has deviated from this scenario, aligning with more pessimistic outlooks.

Objective

• Evaluate the global capacity to achieve food security while safeguarding nature by tracking food production relative to natural resource use.
• Assess progress in global land productivity and water productivity over the past two decades (2000–2019).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with regional analysis for seven CAWMA regions: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Latin America and the Caribbean (LAT), Middle East and North Africa (MENA), South Asia (SAS), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries (OECD), Eastern Europe and Central Asia (CAS), and East Asia and Pacific (EAS).
• Temporal Scale: 2000–2019, with 4-year epochs to smooth out noise from short-term fluctuations.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Remote sensing data from various open-access sources, including satellite missions.
• Data sources: Potapov et al. (2022b) for cropland area, Running and Zhao (2021) for biomass, Evapotranspiration (2000–2019) by Running et al. (2021), Cropping intensity (2001–2019) by Liu et al. (2021).

Main Results

• Global agricultural production increased by 24.3%, nearly meeting the projected 26.2% growth in food demand, but through an 11.5% expansion of cropland area and at least 15.0% increase in irrigated area.
• Crop water consumption rose by 25.3% against a projection of 7.4%.
• Land productivity improved by only 11.6% versus a projected 21.7%, and water productivity declined by 1.6% against a projected increase of 12.9%.

Contributions

• The study provides an evidence-based understanding of current trends in global agricultural productivity, highlighting the need for more sustainable practices.
• The findings support previous research indicating that actual agricultural trends follow pessimistic scenarios outlined in CAWMA projections.

Funding

• This research was funded by [insert funding agencies or projects, e.g., CGIAR, Wageningen University & Research].

Citation

@article{Safi2026world,
  author = {Safi, Abdur Rahim and Karimi, Poolad and Fraiture, Charlotte de},
  title = {The world is being fed at the expense of nature: A remote sensing based global assessment from 2000 to 2019},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110711},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110711}
}