Fan et al. (2026) Responses of crop yield and water productivity to stage-specific moisture anomalies under different precipitation scenarios

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-01
• Authors: Zuwei Fan, Xiongzhan Deng, Ziqi Li, Yuting Zheng, Yue Luo, Yuanquan Chen, Peng Sui
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110726

Research Groups

• China Agricultural University, College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, Beijing, China
• Wuqiao Experimental Station of China Agricultural University, Cangzhou City, Hebei Province, China

Short Summary

This study investigates the responses of crop yield and water productivity to stage-specific moisture anomalies under different precipitation scenarios in rainfed winter wheat systems. The results show that both crop yield and water productivity exhibit clear deviation under different precipitation anomaly scenarios, with varying response intensity depending on moisture background and scenario type.

Objective

• Investigate how winter wheat yield and water productivity respond to precipitation anomalies at different growth stages.
• Quantify the marginal effects of precipitation variability at different growth stages.
• Determine the optimal management pathway for stabilizing rainfed winter wheat production in the North China Plain.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study was conducted on a 10 m × 10 m plot scale at the Wuqiao Experimental Station, Cangzhou City, Hebei Province, China.
• Temporal Scale: The study spanned four years (2015-2019) with daily precipitation and temperature data used to generate climate scenarios.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: APSIM Next Generation (APSIM-NG)
• Data sources: Field observations from 2015 to 2019, historical meteorological data from the China Meteorological Administration for the period 1990-2021

Main Results

• The response of winter wheat yield to precipitation exhibited a clear dependence on background moisture conditions.
• Under drought conditions, yield increased with increasing precipitation in the target stage.
• Under normal and wet backgrounds, the relationship between yield and precipitation was generally weak or negative.
• Water productivity (WP) showed an overall positive relationship with yield, although this relationship varied across moisture backgrounds and growth stages.

Contributions

• This study provides a scenario-based analytical framework for quantitatively assessing the responses of winter wheat yield and WP to stage-specific and multi-stage cumulative precipitation anomalies.
• The findings highlight the importance of considering stage-specific precipitation anomalies and background moisture conditions when evaluating crop performance under climate variability.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51779123)
• Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA23020301)

Citation

@article{Fan2026Responses,
  author = {Fan, Zuwei and Deng, Xiongzhan and Li, Ziqi and Zheng, Yuting and Luo, Yue and Chen, Yuanquan and Sui, Peng},
  title = {Responses of crop yield and water productivity to stage-specific moisture anomalies under different precipitation scenarios},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110726},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110726}
}