Eshetie et al. (2026) A hybrid AquaCrop–XGBoost framework for climate-smart irrigation and crop yield resilience under CMIP6 scenarios in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-01
• Authors: Habtamu Abay Eshetie, Tena Alamirew, Abebech Abera Beyene, Dejene Sahlu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110747

Research Groups

• Faculty of Civil and Water Resources Engineering, Bahir Dar Institute of Technology, Bahir Dar University
• Water and Land Resource Centre
• Institute of Disaster Risk Management & Food Security Studies, Bahir Dar University

Short Summary

This study integrates field experiments, the AquaCrop model, and machine learning to evaluate drip and furrow irrigation systems for tomato production in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia. The results show that drip irrigation substantially improved tomato productivity and maintained greater yield stability under future climate scenarios.

Objective

• Evaluate the performance of climate-smart irrigation strategies using a hybrid AquaCrop–XGBoost framework.
• Assess the impact of climate change on tomato yield and water productivity in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study was conducted at the field scale (Shina Kebele Farmer Training Center) and basin scale (Lake Tana Basin).
• Temporal Scale: The study spanned two growing seasons (2023–2024) and future climate scenarios (2015–2099).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: AquaCrop, XGBoost
• Data sources: Field experiments, satellite remote sensing products (Sentinel-2), gridded climate datasets (ERA5-Land, CHIRPS)

Main Results

• Drip irrigation improved tomato productivity by 150% compared to furrow irrigation.
• The integrated AquaCrop–XGBoost framework accurately predicted tomato yield under future climate scenarios.
• Climate change is projected to reduce tomato yield and increase water scarcity in the Lake Tana Basin.

Contributions

• This study provides a novel approach for evaluating climate-smart irrigation strategies using a hybrid model framework.
• The results highlight the importance of considering spatial variability and climate change impacts on agricultural productivity.

Funding

• Not specified

Citation

@article{Eshetie2026hybrid,
  author = {Eshetie, Habtamu Abay and Alamirew, Tena and Beyene, Abebech Abera and Sahlu, Dejene},
  title = {A hybrid AquaCrop–XGBoost framework for climate-smart irrigation and crop yield resilience under CMIP6 scenarios in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110747},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110747}
}