Gai et al. (2026) Water-yield supply–demand relationships in Northwest China three water lines region: An InVEST–glacier assessment

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-05
• Authors: Yingying Gai, Shuhong Mo, Peng Li, Mingjiang Deng, Hui Sun, Tao Zhou
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110752

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Water Engineering Ecology and Environment in Arid Area (Xi'an University of Technology)
• Xinjiang Research Center for Water Resources and Eco-Hydraulic Engineering in Cold and Arid Regions (Urumqi, Xinjiang)

Short Summary

This study developed an InVEST–Glacier framework to quantify water yield service supply and demand in Northwest China Three Water Lines region (TWL region) and identify their dominant driving factors. The results showed that glacier meltwater contributed more than 70% of water yield in most inland basins of the Tarim Basin.

Objective

• Investigate the spatial relationship between water supply and water demand in the TWL region.
• Quantify precipitation and glacier-derived water yield services.
• Characterize spatialized water demand and supply-demand relationships.
• Identify dominant driving factors for spatiotemporal evolution of water yield service supply-demand relationships.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Grid scale (1 km × 1 km) and subregional scale (eight subregions).
• Temporal Scale: Four representative years (2007, 2012, 2017, and 2022).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: InVEST–Glacier model.
• Data sources: Precipitation, air temperature, potential evapotranspiration, plant available water capacity (PAWC), land use/land cover (LULC), glacier-related parameters and boundaries, industrial water withdrawal, population, nighttime lights, DEM, and vegetation indices.

Main Results

• Glacier meltwater contributed more than 70% of water yield in most inland basins of the Tarim Basin.
• Low water-yield areas (0–25 mm) consistently dominated the region, accounting for 60.06%–70.19% of the total area.
• Water yield decreased from 101.28 billion m³ in 2007 to 71.59 billion m³ in 2022 in the Yellow River Subregion.

Contributions

• This study provides a scientific basis for spatially differentiated water resource management in Northwest China.
• The InVEST–Glacier model can be used to simulate regional water yield service supply and demand under different climate scenarios.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51979007)
• Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Science and Technology Plan Project (Grant No. 2021AB01151)

Citation

@article{Gai2026Wateryield,
  author = {Gai, Yingying and Mo, Shuhong and Li, Peng and Deng, Mingjiang and Sun, Hui and Zhou, Tao},
  title = {Water-yield supply–demand relationships in Northwest China three water lines region: An InVEST–glacier assessment},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110752},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110752}
}