Balali et al. (2026) Dynamic adaptive capacity of coupled agriculture-water systems under Climate Change: Evidence from the Western United States

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-12
• Authors: Hamid Balali, Frank A. Ward, Craig R. Allen, Gholamreza Eslamifar, Mani Rouhi Rad, Alexander Fernald
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110772

Research Groups

• New Mexico Water Resources Research Institute, New Mexico State University
• Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business, Water Science and Management Program, New Mexico State University
• School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
• Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University

Short Summary

This study develops a dynamic framework for the Adaptive Capacity Index (ACI) to assess long-run adaptation in coupled agriculture-water systems across western U.S. states over the period 1997–2022. The findings reveal substantial variation in adaptive capacity across the region, with ACI values ranging from 0.197 to 0.793.

Objective

• To develop a dynamic framework for assessing adaptive capacity in coupled agriculture-water systems under climate change.
• To evaluate changes in adaptive capacity over time and identify spatial heterogeneity in adaptive capacity across western U.S. states.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Eleven Western U.S. states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming)
• Temporal Scale: 1997–2022

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Dynamic Assessment of Adaptive Capacity in Coupled Agriculture-Water systems (DACWA) framework
• Data sources: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), USDA Irrigation and Water Management Survey, USDA Economic Research Service (ERS), USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA REEIS)

Main Results

• The ACI ranges from 0.197 to 0.793 across western U.S. states.
• Most states show long-run increases in adaptive capacity, but the magnitude of growth varies substantially, ranging from approximately 29–233% across states between 1997 and 2022.
• Economic, social, cognitive, and technological capacities show strong upward trends, while institutional capacity shows substantial state-specific variation and divergence, and natural and infrastructure capacity remains volatile under hydroclimatic constraints.

Contributions

• This study provides a long-run assessment of adaptive capacity across multiple time periods, allowing changes over time to be examined.
• The dynamic framework for adaptive capacity index explicitly couples agricultural and water systems, incorporating their connectedness.
• The study decomposes adaptive capacity into multiple determinants, enabling a more detailed examination of how different dimensions contribute to overall adaptive capacity and change over time.

Funding

• USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
• USDA Irrigation and Water Management Survey
• USDA Economic Research Service (ERS)
• USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA REEIS)

Citation

@article{Balali2026Dynamic,
  author = {Balali, Hamid and Ward, Frank A. and Allen, Craig R. and Eslamifar, Gholamreza and Rad, Mani Rouhi and Fernald, Alexander},
  title = {Dynamic adaptive capacity of coupled agriculture-water systems under Climate Change: Evidence from the Western United States},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110772},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110772}
}